mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980. ---
now evidently, as shown by many of his policy ideas, he just smokes crack.
lucky hussein
· 1 year ago
another off-topic prediction: markets rally like hell today, no one wants to vote for bailout of thursday, markets tank big next week, along with credit markets..
Rob Mule
· 1 year ago
I know that many of you are feeling anxiety right now - about your jobs, about your homes, about your life savings. But I also know this - I know that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. Because that's who we are. Because this is the United States of America. This is a nation that has faced down war and depression; great challenges and great threats. And at each and every moment, we have risen to meet these challenges - not as Democrats, not as Republicans, but as Americans. With resolve. With confidence. With that fundamental belief that here in America, our destiny is not written for us, but by us. That's who we are, and that's the country we need to be right now.
--If Johnny'd pull his head outa his ass he'd see from the sidelines another man who has become centerstage everywhere...
Rab
· 1 year ago
He also has a non-workout lifestyle that has crippled him even further. He is not in good shape for his age, I know people his age and they are in better overall health. McGramps just doesn't do the regular folk routine including his eating habits. His bad health disqualifies him from being POTUS.
Dave of the Jungle
· 1 year ago
I'm more concerned about lousy executive performance while he's still alive.
But, if Sarah Palin is ever waiting in the wings to lead the free world, I'm leaving the country.
Steve_in_CNJ
· 1 year ago
if you go to canada or russia, she can still see you.
Dave of the Jungle
· 1 year ago
I'd be leaving the hemisphere.
houstonray
· 1 year ago
LMAO!!! :-)
Votejacked
· 1 year ago
This is interesting, but it doesn't ask the right question. The probability is even higher, maybe as much as 1 in 3 if you look at the probability of him dying in office or having an incapacitating illness. He could develop a number of diseases or health problems which would render him unable to finish the term apart from death. What matters is the odds of President Palin, not of McCain dying.
I don't expect he'll live until the election. I see him dropping dead somewhere mid October.
Indigo
· 1 year ago
Talk about an October surprise!
Dave of the Jungle
· 1 year ago
Maybe after the debate this week he'll lose his marbles.
falloch
· 1 year ago
I don't think the Repugs care - if McPain wins, okay; if he dies in office, Caribou Barbie has a shot at the Prezzidenzy; if Obama wins, he'll be so beset with the problems inherited from BushCo that he will be criticized, rubbished, condemned, blamed as being responsible for everything that BushCheney has done in the past eight years that another RePig will get in after four years - and we can resume the complete dissolution of the Constitution, etc. BTW, where IS Cheney these days? Golfing or shooting? or just hiding?
michaelt
· 1 year ago
if it's palin then i'm a-bailin
houstonray
· 1 year ago
SECOND term? Hell, with his health history, he will be lucky to make it through the first....
"President Palin" absolutely terrifies me...
PeteWa
· 1 year ago
Was this taking into account the very obvious stroke that McCain suffered in the last two weeks?
Hurrycane
· 1 year ago
No, because there's been no verification of such an event.
PeteWa
· 1 year ago
I love that you felt the need to answer a heavily sarcastic, rhetorical question. /golfclap
ProgressiveTroll
· 1 year ago
I read a comment somewhere by a Vietnam POW that said most of them that made it back home have since died due to deteriation in their health from malnutrition and the like. They don't have the normal life expectancy. But then again, when you are as elite as McCain....and somehow no matter how many heart attacks, the 5 time deferrment Dick is still kicking.
Bose
· 1 year ago
The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health.
This, to me, is more critical than the life expectancy data.
Think about it: They're saying that, on average, a person with McCain's traits will have another 8 years of good health and function; half may have less than that, half may have more.
Doesn't that suggest that he's got a 50% chance of a significant health issue or crisis at some point in the 8 years following inauguration day?
Put another way: A fifty percent chance that Palin serves as acting President. A fifty percent chance of a sudden shift in command. In the course of one of the most technically and politically challenged periods of history ever, a 50-50 chance that the country will be catapulted into leadership crisis.
Best case scenario, several years pass before the crisis hits, Palin has been extensively schooled in foreign policy, economic and political leadership because McCain has integrated her in all that the office entails. But will he trust her? Will she step up?
But, we don't have any assurance that the 50% likely scenario will wait six years instead of 3.
Palin has been widely reported, after 20 months in the governor's office, of being uninterested in the nitty-gritty of the state's business. She has been largely divorced from collaboration with the state legislature, not even bothering to show up in the state capitol to manage her staff in person.
Picture the crisis hitting 20 months into McCain's presidency. Why should we believe that her approach to the vice presidency will be fundamentally different from the governorship? Why should we believe she will not emulate Bush by spending 25% of her time phoning it in from Wasilla?
Obama cannot push this point, so progressive bloggers must: Fifty percent chance that McCain will no longer be healthy in 8 years. Is that the gamble we want to take?
barts
· 1 year ago
As much as I loathe the McCain and the Republican party, I wouldn't hope/wish him ill-health or death, since we're all heading toward that eventuality. I'm still relatively young, but I know my life is finite and I guess that is what makes me uncomfortable when discussing the chance McCain has in dying before he leaves office. I know it is something to consider.
One might argue that because there are still more fringe people out there who vehemently dislike people of color to be our president that Barack has a higher chance of being shot by some angry KKK member.
Hurrycane
· 1 year ago
Agree on all points, FWIW. The Atlanta firm should have taken assassination risk into account, if possible.
percol8r
· 1 year ago
For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.
Not to mention increased anxiety and heightened risk of heart attack every time Sarah Palin opens her mouth.
GnashEquilibrium
· 1 year ago
I am an actuary and it seems to me that this study seriously underestimates McCain's probability of dying and/or overestimates Obama's. As I explain in detail here, they find McCain only about 4.5 times more likely than Obama to die in the next 8 years, but I find it should be about 9 times. It is also more important to focus on surviving one term, and the difference there is also dramatic, with McCain at least 15% likely to die vs. about 2% for Obama.
BTW, you've written about this study before and I commented then, too. (Mainly agreeing with you, other than in some technical details.)
All Comments
http://freewayblogger.blogspot.com/2008/09/laor...
plenty more where those came from.
---
now evidently, as shown by many of his policy ideas, he just smokes crack.
--If Johnny'd pull his head outa his ass he'd see from the sidelines another man who has become centerstage everywhere...
But, if Sarah Palin is ever waiting in the wings to lead the free world, I'm leaving the country.
I've been looking forward to seeing a study like this for a while now, I posted on it at my blog Votejacked, if you're interested:
http://votejacked.com/2008/09/08/create-a-study/
"President Palin" absolutely terrifies me...
/golfclap
This, to me, is more critical than the life expectancy data.
Think about it: They're saying that, on average, a person with McCain's traits will have another 8 years of good health and function; half may have less than that, half may have more.
Doesn't that suggest that he's got a 50% chance of a significant health issue or crisis at some point in the 8 years following inauguration day?
Put another way: A fifty percent chance that Palin serves as acting President. A fifty percent chance of a sudden shift in command. In the course of one of the most technically and politically challenged periods of history ever, a 50-50 chance that the country will be catapulted into leadership crisis.
Best case scenario, several years pass before the crisis hits, Palin has been extensively schooled in foreign policy, economic and political leadership because McCain has integrated her in all that the office entails. But will he trust her? Will she step up?
But, we don't have any assurance that the 50% likely scenario will wait six years instead of 3.
Palin has been widely reported, after 20 months in the governor's office, of being uninterested in the nitty-gritty of the state's business. She has been largely divorced from collaboration with the state legislature, not even bothering to show up in the state capitol to manage her staff in person.
Picture the crisis hitting 20 months into McCain's presidency. Why should we believe that her approach to the vice presidency will be fundamentally different from the governorship? Why should we believe she will not emulate Bush by spending 25% of her time phoning it in from Wasilla?
Obama cannot push this point, so progressive bloggers must: Fifty percent chance that McCain will no longer be healthy in 8 years. Is that the gamble we want to take?
One might argue that because there are still more fringe people out there who vehemently dislike people of color to be our president that Barack has a higher chance of being shot by some angry KKK member.
Not to mention increased anxiety and heightened risk of heart attack every time Sarah Palin opens her mouth.
BTW, you've written about this study before and I commented then, too. (Mainly agreeing with you, other than in some technical details.)