AMERICAblog: AP's Liz "Spinkles" Sidoti really delivers one last time for John McCain -- paints "nightmare scenario for Democrats"
SkippyFlipjack
· 1 year ago
The "2000 heartbreaker" was the Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore. Gore won that election. Does she really anticipate a repeat of 2000's once-in-a-lifetime series of events?
Steve_in_CNJ
· 1 year ago
indeed, nate silver just decreased mccain's chances of winning the election to 1.9%. he is teasing us a little before he puts up the 'latest polls' discussion. it should be good.
cowboyneok
· 1 year ago
From Nate:
"McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year."
First time I've actually watched the Liz Donuts clip. Completely nauseating. Liz is a disgrace.
Rab
· 1 year ago
Associated Poop.
Fireblazes(CheetohsandCatfood)
· 1 year ago
Obama is like Lt John Dunbar in Dances With Wolves. When he lets go of the reins of his horse and rides in front of the enemy lines, and is never touched. I know it is a cheesy comparison but it just works. http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1509827/dances_wi...
Fireblazes(CheetohsandCatfood)
· 1 year ago
I kind of doubt that McC will run the table, which is what he needs to do. If he loses in Virginia, it is over for him.
Steve_in_CNJ
· 1 year ago
if he loses VA it's over at 8 pm eastern. otherwise, we have to wait for colorado polls to close to hear the the foregone conclusion.
KarenMrsLloydRichards
· 1 year ago
Which is why VA is shaping up to be this year's OH--a racist fustercluck of inadequate # of voting machines, uneven distribution of machines to the disadvantage of African-American precincts, paper ballot shortfalls, no extended voting hours (thanks, Judge!) Tomorrow will be an effin' disaster, I predict, in VA. FL in 00, OH in 04, VA in 08. See the pattern?!
KarenMrsLloydRichards
· 1 year ago
More on VA: 5 million registered voters total. 10,600 voting machines; that is one EV (touch screen) machine for every 750 voters (optimal, with completely equable distribution to every precinct), and 1 voting booth for every 425 voters using optical scan ballots. 12 hours only (extended voting denied this afternoon by Judge Richard L. Williams in response to NAACP lawsuit).
For comparison, neighboring MD has 3.4 million registered voters. 19,000 total EV machines, which is 1 for every 175 voters (assuming 100% turnout). 13 hours. Even then, each voter has no more than 4.8 minutes total to operate the machine to cast his vote. That is, with all machines operating flawlessly and with a predicted 85% turnout.
The numbers are AGAINST a smooth, efficient, timely election in VA.
voicewithin
· 1 year ago
How about the Lying Super Express? Has McCain said anything truthful in the past 2 years?
Well! Deregulate Wall Street but Regulate the Judges! Maybe I am missing something here. The Republicans have always been about stacking the courts with hardline anti-abortion right viewed skewed judges.
grandma
· 1 year ago
OT
Bush is extremely unpopular: his approval rating now stands at 20 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a president.
Bush is now at 20% in the CBS poll, lowest ever (yes, that's ever) for a President. Lower than Truman. Lower than Nixon.
Yes he is. That isn't Bu$h? He sure as hell voted 90% of the time with him so its easy to get confused.
smithdaleus
· 1 year ago
I am a dyed in the wool Barack Supporter. I really do not know how Americans can stand 8-12 more years of republican rule, but I am not particularly hopeful of a Barack victory for one simple reason: HAVA, Help America Vote Act. We as Democrats need to talk about the elephant in the room: voter suppression and purging caused by HAVA. It is not who votes but who counts the votes that determines the elections. Follow the link below.
The MSM is already setting this up as a close election. They are preparing us for the magical upset victory by McCain. Four years ago those that said Bush stole the election were label cranks and conspiracy theorists. Even at this site. What have we as Dems done to protect our vote. I for one am taking the day off tomorrow to be an observer. It is too bad the damage is already done. I truly do want to believe in democracy but I just can't get excited!
FunMe
· 1 year ago
I think the republiCONs will retreat at the end.
There will be MASSIVE Democrat, Independents and republicons who saw light, vote for Obama.
Stealing the vote in 2008 will cause havoc and chaos at a nation-wide level worse than the Rodney King riots.
The American People will not take it. NOT THIS TIME!
Miss Sprinkles can just go stuff herself with donuts somewhere else.
An_American_Karol
· 1 year ago
It's a nightmare scenario for Republicans - their candidate loses all swing states and his home state of Arizona. Because of the uncharacteristically high Democratic turnout, the GOP loses seats in both the House and Senate in record numbers. Which is closer to a real outcome tomorrow, Ms. Sidoti?
smithdaleus
· 1 year ago
HAVA+Voter suppression = McCain Win
Ann_in_KC
· 1 year ago
Thanks for working tomorrow as an observer. I too get nervous when they start saying it may be close after seeing all these polls. But some may be remembering NH primary.
KarenMrsLloydRichards
· 1 year ago
Good thing: papers, already in deep enough kimchi, are fleeing the AP and their extortionate fees for their shitty service.
Bush_Bites
· 1 year ago
I'm so glad more and more papers are dumping "All Propaganda."
(I guess one West Coast paper is challenging AP's "three-year notice" policy in court. If they can get that dumped, all the papers who want out will be leaving AP immediately, although I guess AP will still get their kickbacks from the Repub Party.)
cowboyneok
· 1 year ago
good.
Soundboy_jeff_meanie
· 1 year ago
Joe, agreed...
one little critique... its 'wing nut daily', not 'world nut daily'.
;-)
dad
· 1 year ago
sure
davidtoc
· 1 year ago
Things like this scare me because they come across as conservatives setting the stage to steal another election and laying out a rationale as to why once again the results don't match the polls.
cowboyneok
· 1 year ago
They did it in 2000 and 2004. They made it look like all the exit polls where wildly off. They laid out rational after rational of how Bu$hco. could have fairly stolen the election. They don't like Democracy much, so I will not breath easy until the day after tomorrow. This one can't be stolen as easy, though. There will be civil unrest if it happens again.
jsdc007
· 1 year ago
Her doomsday scenario is whats been keeping me up at night.
The polls are well within the margin of error in VA, OH, MO, NC, FL. If, for some reason, Obama is trailing in PA, then he has to pick up OH or FL to compensate for that loss. He'd also have to get NV, NM, and CO (quite likely).
Its not a done deal until the fat lady sings. I'm optimistic, but very anxious and worried.
since1792
· 1 year ago
four words: Liz Sidoti dot com
cowboyneok
· 1 year ago
Oh, I thought "AP" stood for "Asinine Propaganda."
snidelywhiplash
· 1 year ago
I'd just love to send Liz a tube of sprinkles after we win tomorrow. Anyone got an address?
Shnidely
· 1 year ago
You Americans are such extremists. First, the far-right Bush......now the far-left Obama. Folks, this guy's even farther left than Jimmy Carter was, and look at the disaster he was. You're making a mistake voting Obama into office. You can't see it now for all the media worship, but you'll see it soon. You'd be much wiser to put man like McCain into office who is left enough of Bush, but far more centrist than Obama.
Geez, I can't imagine another 4 years of stupidity if Obama gets in. When will you guys ever learn?
All Comments
"McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year."
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Completely nauseating.
Liz is a disgrace.
I know it is a cheesy comparison but it just works.
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1509827/dances_wi...
For comparison, neighboring MD has 3.4 million registered voters. 19,000 total EV machines, which is 1 for every 175 voters (assuming 100% turnout). 13 hours. Even then, each voter has no more than 4.8 minutes total to operate the machine to cast his vote. That is, with all machines operating flawlessly and with a predicted 85% turnout.
The numbers are AGAINST a smooth, efficient, timely election in VA.
Well! Deregulate Wall Street but Regulate the Judges! Maybe I am missing something here. The Republicans have always been about stacking the courts with hardline anti-abortion right viewed skewed judges.
Bush is extremely unpopular: his approval rating now stands at 20 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a president.
Bush is now at 20% in the CBS poll, lowest ever (yes, that's ever) for a President. Lower than Truman. Lower than Nixon.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/3/162...
http://www.truthout.org/110308A
The MSM is already setting this up as a close election. They are preparing us for the magical upset victory by McCain. Four years ago those that said Bush stole the election were label cranks and conspiracy theorists. Even at this site. What have we as Dems done to protect our vote. I for one am taking the day off tomorrow to be an observer. It is too bad the damage is already done. I truly do want to believe in democracy but I just can't get excited!
There will be MASSIVE Democrat, Independents and republicons who saw light, vote for Obama.
Stealing the vote in 2008 will cause havoc and chaos at a nation-wide level worse than the Rodney King riots.
The American People will not take it. NOT THIS TIME!
Miss Sprinkles can just go stuff herself with donuts somewhere else.
Because of the uncharacteristically high Democratic turnout, the GOP loses seats in both the House and Senate in record numbers.
Which is closer to a real outcome tomorrow, Ms. Sidoti?
(I guess one West Coast paper is challenging AP's "three-year notice" policy in court. If they can get that dumped, all the papers who want out will be leaving AP immediately, although I guess AP will still get their kickbacks from the Repub Party.)
one little critique... its 'wing nut daily', not 'world nut daily'.
;-)
The polls are well within the margin of error in VA, OH, MO, NC, FL. If, for some reason, Obama is trailing in PA, then he has to pick up OH or FL to compensate for that loss. He'd also have to get NV, NM, and CO (quite likely).
Its not a done deal until the fat lady sings. I'm optimistic, but very anxious and worried.
Geez, I can't imagine another 4 years of stupidity if Obama gets in. When will you guys ever learn?