AMERICAblog: Canadian left forms alliance that could unseat Bush crony
foxy
· 12 months ago
Current Prime Minister Harper is Classical Economist and Evangelical. Arrogant, and indeed as you said it a "Bush crony". He is a remnant of the radical right Reform party and neo-conservatives. He's just got to go.
marijo
· 12 months ago
Bush-lite. Good riddance, it was an embarassment to see Canada fall for that moron Harper's tripe again, I will be glad to see him foisted on his own petard of arrogance and ignorance
Bubbles
· 12 months ago
Actually he's Bush heavy. Bush is Harper Light. Why can I say this? Because Harper isn't as dumb as Bush and that makes him all the more dangerous.
marijo
· 12 months ago
Touche!! I agree for the most part, though this last stunt is definitely Bush worthy!!!
Older_Wiser
· 12 months ago
Doesn't Canada have a "no confidence" vote?
OT, but another shooting in a store, allegedly at a KMart on Frankford Ave. in Philly. Those shootings are putting me off any shopping trips...
foxy
· 12 months ago
Monday supposedly. Unless the current government can stall it. But that maybe slim.
Indigo
· 12 months ago
Did you hear about the shooting in a WalMart in Orlando? A man wearing a woman's floral print dress and grey wig held up one of the cashiers. shot several times into the ceiling to create a distraction and left the store without further incident. No trace of him has been found. The Blank-Marts are dangerous. I guess we'll have to go shopping up market or not at all. I'm in the not-at-all column. How about you?
Older_Wiser
· 12 months ago
Up market? They wouldn't even let me in the store the way I have to dress these days. : ) And I didn't intend to shop anyway except for one gift for my son.
Indigo
· 12 months ago
Somehow, that puts me in mind of the Prairie Home Companion (imaginary) store that had the motto: "If we don''t have it, you don't need it!" :-)
cosanostradamus
· 12 months ago
. AW, now, Dubya's not so bad! Just ask him. Or Sid Vicious. .
Steve_in_CNJ
· 12 months ago
un changement à y croire?
marijo
· 12 months ago
Oui on peut!!!! Le vrai changement! Espoir et pouvoir!
Jennifer
· 12 months ago
It seems Harper, instead of choosing diplomacy and conceding that he precipitated this move, will attempt to dissolve Parliament and call the second federal election in 2 months, costing us another $350 million. The Governor-General would have to consent, though, so my hope is that she will reject this and accept the Coalition as Canada'a New Government (inside joke for Canookies: Steve-O had this legend printed on the stationery of all federal ministries when he sleazed in to power with his first minority government).
The fact is, it was his arrogant attempt to withdraw federal funding from opposition political parties that caused opposition parties to lose it. He effectively attempted to put in place a one-party system. There's another name for that, and it starts with an 'f'. He further attempted to push through legislation that would have prohibited public sector unions from striking for three years. Both these pieces of legislation were withdrawn, one after the other, as Harper and his good squad realized that the opposition was deadly serious about ousting him from office.
The Governor-General is pivotal to how this will play. Please pray for us that this maniac does not get his way. I believe, should he call another election, that it's possible he may win a majority. People do not understand, even up here, what any of this means. He is using words like "coup d'etat" to describe the actions of the opposition parties, even though he was only voted for by 37% of the population. The combined power of the opposition is 62%. In consideration of the low voter turnout for the recent election, only 22% of eligible voters actually voted for Harper. People stayed away from the polls out of disgust for Harper's cynical actions, in that he had passed legislation that would establish a fixed election date for Canadian federal elections. He pushed his own legislation aside, because he saw the October election as his last chance to get a majority in the house. He rolled the dice, he lost. It was his arrogance that time and his arrogance, this time.
He is also using the great bogey of the Bloc Quebecois to frighten Canadians. Nothing scares Canadians more than Gilles Duceppe (their leader). Frankly, his performance in the federal debates should have calmed the nerves of anyone paying attention. He will be a great support to this coalition, should it get off the ground. Still, Canadians live in mortal fear of Quebec, mostly because of gum-flapping efforts of people like Harper.
We're either about to have a miracle up here and stop this monster, Harper, from taking our precious Canadian institutions apart, one by one, or we're going to lose our country and everything it stands for to this pig from Alberta.
Indigo
· 12 months ago
O Canada.
ahermit
· 12 months ago
Harper's Conservatives were elected with a plurality; about 38 % of the vote, giving them 143 seats in the House of Commons. The Liberals won 26%, for 77 seats, and the NDP won about 18%, which gave them 37seats.
Since Canadians elect representatives by ridings (districts) and not proportionally this means the Liberals and NDP, in spite of having a larger combined popular vote that the Conservatives, will need the support of the Bloc Quebecois, whose 105 of the popular vote is all concentrated in Quebec, giving them 49 seats.
SInce Harper is, indeed, an arrogant Bush wannabe who could not bring himself to compromise and cooperate with the other parties he will not be able to survive a budget vote next week. This is a "confidence vote" which means if he loses he must go to the Governor General (the Queen's representative) and declare he has lost the support of Parliament and ask for a new election, but since we just had an election in October the GG is more likely (as she may under Parliamentary rules) ask the other parties of they can form a government.
Which is exactly what hey demonstrated they can do today; an agreement to share cabinet positions between the Liberals and NDP (with a Liberal Prime Minister) and a signed promise from the Bloc to support the coalition on confidence motions.
The Conservatives (especially the Republican wannabe "reform": wing of the party) are howling that this is "undemocratic" and even "treasonous", and crying about the inclusion of the "separatist" Bloc thus further displaying their ignorance of Parliamentary representative democracy, and ignoring their own leader's attempts to form exactly the same kind of coalition in 2004 as he sought to take down the Liberal minority government. He failed, for the same reason he is failing today. He is incapable of cooperating with the other parties.
It's a messy bit of sausage-making, but in the end a very democratic solution.This Canuck is thrilled at the prospect of progressive Liberal/NDP coalition. We'll finally have a government that actually represents most of us and will work for the country, not for electoral advantage.
foxy
· 12 months ago
Indeed! And this truly is democracy. Or "democrazy".
EmGD
· 12 months ago
Canada, did you not see our leadership under a right wing evangelical? Did you not learn anything? Technically in 2004 we didn't either, but we were too deep inside to realize it. You had that outsiders perspective. C'est la vie, at least you seem to be getting the picture as well. Let's swear to never do it again, we both need a partner so we won't backslide. Deal?
Actually, we did. The Conservatives have never had more than 37% of the popular vote in any of their last three, short-lived minority governments. Having more than 2 major political parties tends to spread the vote around, resulting in leaders with a minority vote leading as if they have the mandate from the majority.
So please, I know your hearts in the right place, but don't talk to Canadians as if we've been blind to what's been going on down south. It's condescending. We are acutely aware.
Dave of the Jungle
· 12 months ago
Before you know it, intelligent polity will break out everywhere. People will think competence is desirable. Rush Limpbrain will have a stroke. Shit.
ahermit
· 12 months ago
Anyone interested in some fun Canadian blog-wonkery should check out Kady O'Malley's place:
Jennifer; I'm not too worried about Harper getting a new election, or a prorogued Parliament. If Governor General Jean follows Parliamentary tradition she has to offer the other parties a chance to form a government:
"If a Cabinet is defeated in the House of Commons on a motion of censure or want of confidence, the Cabinet must either resign (the Governor General will then ask the Leader of the Opposition to form a new Cabinet) or ask for a dissolution of Parliament and a fresh election.
In very exceptional circumstances, the Governor General could refuse a request for a fresh election. For instance, if an election gave no party a clear majority and the Prime Minister asked for a fresh election without even allowing the new Parliament to meet, the Governor General would have to say no. This is because, if “parliamentary government” is to mean anything, a newly elected House of Commons must at least be allowed to meet and see whether it can transact public business. Also, if a minority government is defeated on a motion of want of confidence very early in the first session of a new Parliament, and there is a reasonable possibility that a government of another party can be formed and get the support of the House of Commons, then the Governor General could refuse the request for a fresh election. The same is true for the Lieutenant-Governors of the provinces."
Steve
· 12 months ago
I'm so freaking happy about this! Harper is considered a 'smart' Bush clone in Canada and after us having a front row seat to what has happened in America for the last eight years, I just can't understand why any Canadian would support this clown in the first place. I've been waiting for this for soooo long. The coalition that has formed to replace Harper is perfectly legal and constitutional and represents over 50% of Canadian voters. Of course the conservatives are wailing that this is a coup and is against the will of the electorate but since they got only 38% of the vote in the last election they don't really have a valid argument (actually when you look at voter turnout, only 1 in 4 eligible voters voted for the conservatives in the election in October). This isn't a done deal yet. Harper wants to shut down the government until January to prevent a non-confidence vote (yeah, great way to put the country first during the global financial crisis). But right now it feels good to be a Canadian again because he has done so much damage to Canada and it's reputation around the world.
unrepentant_expat
· 12 months ago
More last straws...
Last week, the Harper Government signed the Canada Colombia Trade Deal.
Once again, Prime Minister Harper has chosen to ignore compelling evidence, reports and recommendations presented by the House of Commons Standing Committee on International Trade, civil society, the labour movement and the grassroots in Canada and in Colombia.
These reports called for an independent, impartial and comprehensive human rights impact assessment to be developed and carried out before before Canada considers signing, ratifying and implementing a free trade agreement with Colombia.
In 2008, alone, 41 activists have been killed by paramilitary forces who have documented links with the Uribe government.
The ongoing death toll, massacre of those working for social and economic justice is the price Harper is willing to pay for caving in to greedy transnational corporations that are eager to go into rural Colombia, strip natural assets from oil and mineral resources no matter the human cost.
The NDP rejects the Canada-Colombia free trade deal until an independent human rights impact assessment is carried out and the resulting concerns addressed. The agreement must be renegotiated along the principles of a fair trade model, that contains enforceable legislated provisions on corporate social responsibility and accountability that implement universal human rights and environmental standards.
terjeanderson
· 12 months ago
Lots of intrigue and potential complications here, but the situation is fascinating and exciting. While more than 60% of Canadians voted for left/centre-left parties, the parliamentary system allowed a conservative party that only won 37% to form the government.
While the Lib/NDP/BQ have agreed to a coalition, that doesn't guarantee that they will bring down the government and form one of their own. Among the many complexities that will influence things are:
1. Harper is going to try to avoid this - he will attempt to porogue (adjourn) Parliament without allowing a confidence vote. Under this scenario, Parliament would stay out until January when Harper would attempt to offer a budget that was able to peel off one of the parties (most likely the Bloc Quebecois, by offering incentives to Quebec) and maintain a minority government. Alternatively, he would bring Parliament back in January and have a no-confidence vote that forces a March election.
2. Even if the Conservatives lose a confidence vote, it is up to the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor as to whether to ask another party to form a government, or to dissolve Parliament and call an election. While the fact that there is a coalition assembled that is ready to form a government makes it more likely that she will ask them to form a government, it is up to her discretion. (The current Lt Gov Michaelle Jean, was appointed by a previous Liberal government and faced some rumours that she had been a Quebec nationalist earlier in her career - presumably this makes her open to both the Liberals as government and allowing the Bloc Quebecois to be part of holding up the government.)
3. Because the Liberals lost the October election so badly, their leader, Stefan Dion, has announced that he is leaving party leadership after a successor is elected in May. There is agreement that Dion would still serve as the Prime Minister as part of the coalition, and would then be replaced by the new Liberal leader in May. While it would be odd to have a lame duck Prime Minister putting together a new government, there is nothing that would prevent it from happening.
4. Some right wing Canadian commentators and politicians will scream bloody murder at the idea of a government that depends on an agreement with the Bloc Quebecois to achieve a majority. Because the Bloc favours Quebec separation, some would question the constitutionality of bringing them into a governing coalition - those concerns would be constitutionally bogus, but perhaps politically powerful.
5. Coincidentally, the scheduled date for the non-confidence vote (December 8th), is also the date of the provincial election in Quebec. In that election the current minority Liberal government (headed by Jean Charest, who used to be federal leader of the old Progressive Conservative party), is hoping to win a majority government. Harper's de facto ally in the province, the ADQ (Action démocratique du Québec) formed the opposition after a very strong showing in the last provincial election, but appear to be headed to a near wipe-out this election. Meanwhile, the Parti Quebecois (provincial ally of the federal Bloc Quebecois) has a new leader (Pauline Marois) and is headed to recovery from a 3rd place finish in the 2007 election. While the Quebec provincial election has no formal relationship to federal politics, the outcome of the Quebec vote will be a factor in the thinking about the government and the next election. If the Parti Quebecois wins, it would signal a return leftward in Quebec politics - but might also make the Bloc Quebecois more toxic in federal politics by putting the separation question back on the agenda. If the ADQ vote totally collapses, it could be a sign for Harper that he would lose Quebec seats in a new election. And a Liberal/Charest victory would probably bode well for a coalition government in Ottawa -- affirming a centrist approach and keeping the independence issue under the radar for a while longer.
6. If the outcome of this all is a winter election (something Canadians hate - voting in the winter is no fun), it would be a bizarre affair. The Liberals could be forced to fight the election prior to their leadership convention in May - instead being led either by Stefan Dion, or another placeholder leader. Perhaps more important is the question of whether the Liberals and NDP would engage in either a formal or informal coalition campaign strategy to encourage "strategic voting" as a way to avoid the current vote split that allows the Conservatives to win many of their seats. (A less important question would also exist in Quebec with the Bloc -- the handful of Conservative seats in the province aren't usually won because of a vote split).
7. The winner of the Liberal leadership race would, presumably, become the Prime Minister if there were a coalition government. If Bob Rae wins the leadership, it might be hard for the NDP to stomach him -- Rae was once the NDP Premier of Ontario, and many NDPers can't forgive him for being a turncoat (or for being an incredibly inept and unpopular provincial premier). They would probably have less trouble with the other main leadership contender Michael Ignatieff, but they have serious disagreements with his strong support for the war in Afghanistan and for the invasion of Iraq. The Bloc would prefer either of these leaders over Dion, who (despite being from Quebec) is considered somewhat hostile to many of Quebec's demands for greater autonomy.
Hopefully we'll finally see a government in Canada that reflects the clear progressive inclinations of the Canadian people, instead of a right wing minority government led by Harper. But in the meantime, the soap opera is worth watching.
foxy
· 12 months ago
He will try or attempt to prorogue the parliament, however prorogation isn't, technically, automatic; the governor general has to approve it, but she does so "on the advice of the prime minister."
"I don't see any reason why she could do otherwise," says Michael Behiels, a constitutional expert at University of Ottawa. "If it was a habit, then she would probably say 'Hey, I'm not going to play your game,' " he adds.
Queen's University professor emeritus Ned Franks said Jean could also choose to limit the power of Harper and his government while Parliament is suspended for the same reason their powers are limited during an election campaign.
"If Harper doesn't enjoy the confidence of the House he can't act as though he does," Franks said.
When the House of Commons is dissolved for an election the prime ministerial powers are reduced so that he cannot make any appointments, grant contracts or introduce programs beyond routine business.
Franks said the Governor General could impose the same conditions on Harper if she grants his request to prorogue because "Harper would be a lame duck in the sense of carrying on as Prime Minister when the odds are very strong that he no longer enjoys the confidence of the House."
"This would be an unprecedented sort of thing to happen but so is this situation," he said.
What a fabulous lot of great posts here! Yes, this is so very exciting for the reasons mentioned below. I am really fascinated because this is the first time in my life I get to see first-hand the process of a parliamentary democracy that has been challenged by a Coalition gov't. I am thrilled to see that Dion is attempting to find some way to include Elizabeth May. Wow-- a government that actually represents the people of this country as opposed to the typical "tyranny of the majority"! I am curious about how The Bloc will behave as a working part of the gov't. This is so interesting!
Kingstonbears
· 12 months ago
We also have found it interesting the timing of our last election. Harper was sure that it was held before the one in the United States. We knew up here that the Democrats would rule supreme this go around, and Harper didn't want to take the chance of being taken down with Bush. Remember, there is no maximum length that a party must remain in power, the Prime Minister can call an election when he/she feels that the timing will best benefit the party. Thus the earlier than necessary election up here -- to avoid being taken down after the massacre south of the border.
A.Political
· 12 months ago
Actually Harper set fixed election dates and then broke the spirit of his own law (yes, how unlike a Con) by appealing to the Governor General that parliament was dysfunctional. He got another minority and then tried to change campaign finance laws under the auspices of the economic downturn which would have turned Canadian election in to Lobbyist lovefests and buying our elections.
Now he has lost the confidence of the house and twist in the wind at the Governor Generals decision re the coalitions right to govern - considering they got 70% of the vote compared to 30% for the Conservatives, it might be a done deal, thank god.
rositta
· 12 months ago
Just to correct what a.political stated re 70 percent support. The division is as follows; conservative 143 seats 37% popular vote, liberal 76 seats 26% popular vote, NDP 37 seats 18% popular vote. That's the mainstream parties. The Bloc doesn't count outside Quebec although they do sit in the house and they have 50 seats 10% popular vote. The issue most Canadians have right now and trust me the outrage is huge, is that this is a deal with the devil so to speak. The Bloc is the party that wants to separate from Canada. Do they even count, should they count. Either way it's a bloodless coup but I'm not certain it will succeed...ciao
KeithM
· 11 months ago
Outrage in Alberta, sure. Recent polling shows significantly more Canadians prefer giving the Liberals/NDP a chance than do keeping things the same or calling an election. It is NOT a goddamn coup and anyone calling it that is either ignorant of how a parliamentary government works or is mindlessly repeating Harper's talking points.
As for the Bloc, sovereignty is totally off the table for the foreseeable future. In the election going on now in Quebec, it's such a lost cause at the moment that even the original separatists in the PQ explicitly refused to include a plank calling for a referendum in their party platform this time round. The Bloc is, and will be, for some time, a party that represents a specific regional interest.
All Comments
OT, but another shooting in a store, allegedly at a KMart on Frankford Ave. in Philly. Those shootings are putting me off any shopping trips...
AW, now, Dubya's not so bad! Just ask him. Or Sid Vicious.
.
The fact is, it was his arrogant attempt to withdraw federal funding from opposition political parties that caused opposition parties to lose it. He effectively attempted to put in place a one-party system. There's another name for that, and it starts with an 'f'. He further attempted to push through legislation that would have prohibited public sector unions from striking for three years. Both these pieces of legislation were withdrawn, one after the other, as Harper and his good squad realized that the opposition was deadly serious about ousting him from office.
The Governor-General is pivotal to how this will play. Please pray for us that this maniac does not get his way. I believe, should he call another election, that it's possible he may win a majority. People do not understand, even up here, what any of this means. He is using words like "coup d'etat" to describe the actions of the opposition parties, even though he was only voted for by 37% of the population. The combined power of the opposition is 62%. In consideration of the low voter turnout for the recent election, only 22% of eligible voters actually voted for Harper. People stayed away from the polls out of disgust for Harper's cynical actions, in that he had passed legislation that would establish a fixed election date for Canadian federal elections. He pushed his own legislation aside, because he saw the October election as his last chance to get a majority in the house. He rolled the dice, he lost. It was his arrogance that time and his arrogance, this time.
He is also using the great bogey of the Bloc Quebecois to frighten Canadians. Nothing scares Canadians more than Gilles Duceppe (their leader). Frankly, his performance in the federal debates should have calmed the nerves of anyone paying attention. He will be a great support to this coalition, should it get off the ground. Still, Canadians live in mortal fear of Quebec, mostly because of gum-flapping efforts of people like Harper.
We're either about to have a miracle up here and stop this monster, Harper, from taking our precious Canadian institutions apart, one by one, or we're going to lose our country and everything it stands for to this pig from Alberta.
Since Canadians elect representatives by ridings (districts) and not proportionally this means the Liberals and NDP, in spite of having a larger combined popular vote that the Conservatives, will need the support of the Bloc Quebecois, whose 105 of the popular vote is all concentrated in Quebec, giving them 49 seats.
SInce Harper is, indeed, an arrogant Bush wannabe who could not bring himself to compromise and cooperate with the other parties he will not be able to survive a budget vote next week. This is a "confidence vote" which means if he loses he must go to the Governor General (the Queen's representative) and declare he has lost the support of Parliament and ask for a new election, but since we just had an election in October the GG is more likely (as she may under Parliamentary rules) ask the other parties of they can form a government.
Which is exactly what hey demonstrated they can do today; an agreement to share cabinet positions between the Liberals and NDP (with a Liberal Prime Minister) and a signed promise from the Bloc to support the coalition on confidence motions.
The Conservatives (especially the Republican wannabe "reform": wing of the party) are howling that this is "undemocratic" and even "treasonous", and crying about the inclusion of the "separatist" Bloc thus further displaying their ignorance of Parliamentary representative democracy, and ignoring their own leader's attempts to form exactly the same kind of coalition in 2004 as he sought to take down the Liberal minority government. He failed, for the same reason he is failing today. He is incapable of cooperating with the other parties.
It's a messy bit of sausage-making, but in the end a very democratic solution.This Canuck is thrilled at the prospect of progressive Liberal/NDP coalition. We'll finally have a government that actually represents most of us and will work for the country, not for electoral advantage.
http://thesebastards.blogspot.com/
So please, I know your hearts in the right place, but don't talk to Canadians as if we've been blind to what's been going on down south. It's condescending. We are acutely aware.
http://blog.macleans.ca/category/blog-central/c...
And of course, the incomparable CBC...
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/11/28/f-faq...
Jennifer; I'm not too worried about Harper getting a new election, or a prorogued Parliament. If Governor General Jean follows Parliamentary tradition she has to offer the other parties a chance to form a government:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/library/idb/f...
"If a Cabinet is defeated in the House of Commons on a motion of censure or want of confidence, the Cabinet must either resign (the Governor General will then ask the Leader of the Opposition to form a new Cabinet) or ask for a dissolution of Parliament and a fresh election.
In very exceptional circumstances, the Governor General could refuse a request for a fresh election. For instance, if an election gave no party a clear majority and the Prime Minister asked for a fresh election without even allowing the new Parliament to meet, the Governor General would have to say no. This is because, if “parliamentary government” is to mean anything, a newly elected House of Commons must at least be allowed to meet and see whether it can transact public business. Also, if a minority government is defeated on a motion of want of confidence very early in the first session of a new Parliament, and there is a reasonable possibility that a government of another party can be formed and get the support of the House of Commons, then the Governor General could refuse the request for a fresh election. The same is true for the Lieutenant-Governors of the provinces."
Last week, the Harper Government signed the Canada Colombia Trade Deal.
Once again, Prime Minister Harper has chosen to ignore compelling evidence, reports and recommendations presented by the House of Commons Standing Committee on International Trade, civil society, the labour movement and the grassroots in Canada and in Colombia.
These reports called for an independent, impartial and comprehensive human rights impact assessment to be developed and carried out before before Canada considers signing, ratifying and implementing a free trade agreement with Colombia.
In 2008, alone, 41 activists have been killed by paramilitary forces who have documented links with the Uribe government.
The ongoing death toll, massacre of those working for social and economic justice is the price Harper is willing to pay for caving in to greedy transnational corporations that are eager to go into rural Colombia, strip natural assets from oil and mineral resources no matter the human cost.
The NDP rejects the Canada-Colombia free trade deal until an independent human rights impact assessment is carried out and the resulting concerns addressed. The agreement must be renegotiated along the principles of a fair trade model, that contains enforceable legislated provisions on corporate social responsibility and accountability that implement universal human rights and environmental standards.
While the Lib/NDP/BQ have agreed to a coalition, that doesn't guarantee that they will bring down the government and form one of their own. Among the many complexities that will influence things are:
1. Harper is going to try to avoid this - he will attempt to porogue (adjourn) Parliament without allowing a confidence vote. Under this scenario, Parliament would stay out until January when Harper would attempt to offer a budget that was able to peel off one of the parties (most likely the Bloc Quebecois, by offering incentives to Quebec) and maintain a minority government. Alternatively, he would bring Parliament back in January and have a no-confidence vote that forces a March election.
2. Even if the Conservatives lose a confidence vote, it is up to the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor as to whether to ask another party to form a government, or to dissolve Parliament and call an election. While the fact that there is a coalition assembled that is ready to form a government makes it more likely that she will ask them to form a government, it is up to her discretion. (The current Lt Gov Michaelle Jean, was appointed by a previous Liberal government and faced some rumours that she had been a Quebec nationalist earlier in her career - presumably this makes her open to both the Liberals as government and allowing the Bloc Quebecois to be part of holding up the government.)
3. Because the Liberals lost the October election so badly, their leader, Stefan Dion, has announced that he is leaving party leadership after a successor is elected in May. There is agreement that Dion would still serve as the Prime Minister as part of the coalition, and would then be replaced by the new Liberal leader in May. While it would be odd to have a lame duck Prime Minister putting together a new government, there is nothing that would prevent it from happening.
4. Some right wing Canadian commentators and politicians will scream bloody murder at the idea of a government that depends on an agreement with the Bloc Quebecois to achieve a majority. Because the Bloc favours Quebec separation, some would question the constitutionality of bringing them into a governing coalition - those concerns would be constitutionally bogus, but perhaps politically powerful.
5. Coincidentally, the scheduled date for the non-confidence vote (December 8th), is also the date of the provincial election in Quebec. In that election the current minority Liberal government (headed by Jean Charest, who used to be federal leader of the old Progressive Conservative party), is hoping to win a majority government. Harper's de facto ally in the province, the ADQ (Action démocratique du Québec) formed the opposition after a very strong showing in the last provincial election, but appear to be headed to a near wipe-out this election. Meanwhile, the Parti Quebecois (provincial ally of the federal Bloc Quebecois) has a new leader (Pauline Marois) and is headed to recovery from a 3rd place finish in the 2007 election. While the Quebec provincial election has no formal relationship to federal politics, the outcome of the Quebec vote will be a factor in the thinking about the government and the next election. If the Parti Quebecois wins, it would signal a return leftward in Quebec politics - but might also make the Bloc Quebecois more toxic in federal politics by putting the separation question back on the agenda. If the ADQ vote totally collapses, it could be a sign for Harper that he would lose Quebec seats in a new election. And a Liberal/Charest victory would probably bode well for a coalition government in Ottawa -- affirming a centrist approach and keeping the independence issue under the radar for a while longer.
6. If the outcome of this all is a winter election (something Canadians hate - voting in the winter is no fun), it would be a bizarre affair. The Liberals could be forced to fight the election prior to their leadership convention in May - instead being led either by Stefan Dion, or another placeholder leader. Perhaps more important is the question of whether the Liberals and NDP would engage in either a formal or informal coalition campaign strategy to encourage "strategic voting" as a way to avoid the current vote split that allows the Conservatives to win many of their seats. (A less important question would also exist in Quebec with the Bloc -- the handful of Conservative seats in the province aren't usually won because of a vote split).
7. The winner of the Liberal leadership race would, presumably, become the Prime Minister if there were a coalition government. If Bob Rae wins the leadership, it might be hard for the NDP to stomach him -- Rae was once the NDP Premier of Ontario, and many NDPers can't forgive him for being a turncoat (or for being an incredibly inept and unpopular provincial premier). They would probably have less trouble with the other main leadership contender Michael Ignatieff, but they have serious disagreements with his strong support for the war in Afghanistan and for the invasion of Iraq. The Bloc would prefer either of these leaders over Dion, who (despite being from Quebec) is considered somewhat hostile to many of Quebec's demands for greater autonomy.
Hopefully we'll finally see a government in Canada that reflects the clear progressive inclinations of the Canadian people, instead of a right wing minority government led by Harper. But in the meantime, the soap opera is worth watching.
"I don't see any reason why she could do otherwise," says Michael Behiels, a constitutional expert at University of Ottawa. "If it was a habit, then she would probably say 'Hey, I'm not going to play your game,' " he adds.
Queen's University professor emeritus Ned Franks said Jean could also choose to limit the power of Harper and his government while Parliament is suspended for the same reason their powers are limited during an election campaign.
"If Harper doesn't enjoy the confidence of the House he can't act as though he does," Franks said.
When the House of Commons is dissolved for an election the prime ministerial powers are reduced so that he cannot make any appointments, grant contracts or introduce programs beyond routine business.
Franks said the Governor General could impose the same conditions on Harper if she grants his request to prorogue because "Harper would be a lame duck in the sense of carrying on as Prime Minister when the odds are very strong that he no longer enjoys the confidence of the House."
"This would be an unprecedented sort of thing to happen but so is this situation," he said.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/546895
Now he has lost the confidence of the house and twist in the wind at the Governor Generals decision re the coalitions right to govern - considering they got 70% of the vote compared to 30% for the Conservatives, it might be a done deal, thank god.
As for the Bloc, sovereignty is totally off the table for the foreseeable future. In the election going on now in Quebec, it's such a lost cause at the moment that even the original separatists in the PQ explicitly refused to include a plank calling for a referendum in their party platform this time round. The Bloc is, and will be, for some time, a party that represents a specific regional interest.
You know, like Reform did back in the day.