The Stockdale Paradox: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.” JIm Collins
The Conservative Corollary to the Stockdale Paradox: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to ignore the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Rich
· 10 months ago
Now people are being told--you need to be in the stock market because when it recovers, the first wave will be big with a 20-30% gain. Unfortunately, no one knows where the bottom is. I phased out of the stock market over the last year or so. I lost some money, but no where near what others have. I'm not planning to go back in. And I'm not planning to listen to anyone who says I should.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
Obviously, defined contribution retirement accounts like 401ks are a poor alternative to defined benefit accounts like pensions.
Thank God the Repubs didn't achieve their dreams of putting Social Security into the stock market.
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
if you ask the reich-wing they will simply say privatizing would have 'saved the market' - thank god is right.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
if you ask the reich-wing they will simply say privatizing would have 'saved the market'
-----
Yeah, that's their attitude.
Just keep throwing other people's money on the fire.
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
Remember when the nasdaq was a 5K in 2000? when will that return? not likely in our lifetimes, its now 9 years later and it's < 1500. if the dow drops to 4-5K and stays there for some time, the markets themselves will have been proven to be ponzi schemes during the immense run-up and crash during the past 20 yrs. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/chart... not sure the accuracy of this chart
I don't think that money is coming back, it's gone.. what we should do is tax transactions, and raise upper tax rates to 90% to get some of the money back. let the ultra-wealthy flee the country, and we'll re-build a strong middle class much easier without thier politics in the way.
anyone who is retired should not have $ in the stock markets under any scenario.
Steve_in_CNJ
· 10 months ago
when was the last year the world increased its wealth? what was the value of the markets that year? that will be the bottom. I hope it was 2003.
paulbot
· 10 months ago
No more central economic planning plz
evan_la
· 10 months ago
Fine. I'd settle for a sensible regulatory framework with teeth - as opposed to the shark feeding frenzy of the last decade.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
I'm pretty sure our Ron Paul friends are against any regulations.
Portion of disposable income not spent on consumption of consumer goods but accumulated or invested—directly in capital equipment or in paying off a home mortgage, or indirectly through purchase of securities."
Which one is not like the other two.
High Crimes & Misdemeanors
· 10 months ago
Not one word about the banksters on here, not one got'damn word.
What a horrible arrangement. NC still sends out checks (per my neighbor)--but if you don't have a bank account, they charge $$ to cash it, just like they charge me $6 to cash my SS check at my son's bank. I no longer bank myself, just put some in my son's account and keep the rest in cash, so I don't need an acct. I'd never open an account with them now.
PrahaPartizan
· 10 months ago
First, the government will need to find the money to make available to the middle class, which hasn't seen a real rise in income in twenty years. That will require a major increase in the tax rates on the uber-wealthy to offset the major tax cuts which will need to be made in the lower quintile tax brackets. The government could then put together an attractive 401(k) type package into which the middle-class and working class could place some, if not all, of the increase in income they should be seeing. If the government runs the program anything at all like SS the administrative fees could be rock-bottom and they could negotiate very attractive fees for providing financial advisers to provide basic advice to the folks investing in the program. Something like this would at least begin to redress the imbalances which were allowed or encouraged to percolate throughout the individual retirement system.
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
i would love to see this idea happen. It would not have the best returns, but your investments would be supporting other americans, and it would be carefully managed. We have SS now, fine. Keep it the same, now let's go to the next level with this gov't run 401.
miss skeptic
· 10 months ago
Can you imagine how much worse things would be if Bush has succeeded in investing Social Security in the stock market? Good God.
Rich, i think you have the right idea to get out of stocks and stay out - our family is doing likewise. I have a feeling that we won't be the only ones - there will be millions of people who won't ever trust the Dow again.
nanoboy
· 10 months ago
I thought it was standard advice to people to move their money from risky assets like stocks to safe assets like Treasury Notes as they neared retirement. Even if it is (and it is the smart thing to do) I don't think many retired folks did that.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
They have those "Target" retirement accounts now, where it automatically rebalances to more and more cash and bonds as you get older.
Not every company carries those, tho.
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
true for many otherwise very careful and intelligent folks... i wish there was a gov't run investment bank where you might not get the best return, but it would be invested in the people directly. you could point your 401 to it and they would manage according to your nearness to retirement.
Older_Wiser
· 10 months ago
The stock market is too big a gamble for anyone saving for retirement to be in. Ever. Couple market losses with a slide in your property value and you're really screwed if you're retired.
shano
· 10 months ago
I just bought a magicJack phone for my computer. Works great! I am calling qwest tomorrow and canceling my phone service.....I will save at least $500 a year.
It would make sense for anyone living overseas...free calls to the states on line! John and Chris should investigate this, as well as anyone who wants to save money. I bought 5 years of phone service for $60.
So far, all the calls made have been clear and crisp, and I get a voice mail box.
We all have to find ways to save the money we have left...
LuZenMyMnd
· 10 months ago
Shano, I bought one about 6 months ago....and LOVE IT! A friend suggested it to me after she had it for a year. After several months of using it with no problems I'm getting ready to tell AT&T adios as well.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
I keep thinking of the jerks at my bank, who kept tut, tut, tutting me every time I renewed the cds in my Roth account, telling me how I could be doing so much better if I'd just talk to one of their investment managers.
I use one of those megabanks that have banking, investments, insurance--you know, one of the ones Phil Gramm dreamed up. It was just my local bank originally, but it kept getting bought by bigger and bigger banks 'til it because one of those Nightmares on Wall Street.
Anyway, as soon as it starting mixing banking and investments, I had to beat their investment guys off with a stick every time I walked in there. Hell, sometimes they'd just call me out of the blue and say "your savings balance is kind of high, let's set up an appointment so we can put that money to better use."
God, I'm so glad I didn't trust those jerks.
Older_Wiser
· 10 months ago
Their "better use" not yours.
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
Exactly.
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
2 words please! to anyone who keeps thier money in a bank: "credit union" check it out...
Ruthless Gravity
· 10 months ago
Agree.
I've been meaning to look into one.
Jim Olson
· 10 months ago
We withdrew most of my tiny 401K to pay for living expenses when I was unemployed last year. Thank God we did. If we had left it where it was, it would have all been gone...absorbed by the losses.
maudgonne
· 10 months ago
February 19, 2009, 9:47 pm New York Post Apologizes for Chimp Cartoon By Sewell Chan
The New York Post, which was the subject of a protest outside its Midtown headquarters and continued criticism from elected officials on Thursday over the publication of an editorial cartoon that linked a chimpanzee to the economic stimulus package, has issued an apology “to those who were offended,” while maintaining that the cartoon was not intended to be racist. http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/ne...
lucky hussein
· 10 months ago
speaking of wealth lost: how would you like to be a nikkei investor? japan is already looking at a level not seen in 25 years. That doesn't mean you 'break even' if you have been investing over that time - you have lost mucho, since it went so far up (where you bought some) and now back down, not to mention losing $ to inflation.. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225#symb...
maudgonne
· 10 months ago
First, Arthur Santa-Maria called Bank of America to ask how to check the balance of his new unemployment benefits debit card. The bank charged him 50 cents.
He chose not to complain. That would have cost another 50 cents. So he took out some of the money and then decided to pull out the rest. But that made two withdrawals on the same day, and that was $1.50.
For hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs during the recession, there's a new twist to their financial pain: Even when they're collecting unemployment benefits, they're paying the bank just to get the money -- or even to call customer service to complain about it. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/02/19/us/A...
example
· 10 months ago
There's no way to recover people's stock portfolios, in fact one of the reasons, probably why the market took this so badly is that lots of baby boomers took their money out of the market, for good. That money will never come back. Nor should it, everyone understands the risks of the stock market.
What we need to do is strengthen social security.
RRolsen
· 10 months ago
There is also the problem that the unemployment rate today is actually higher than during the Carter-Reagan recession. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both signed off on legislation that changed how unemployment is measured. In addition the population has increased, so the number of workers who have lost their job, are under-employed is now higher than the Carter-Reagan recession.
Luke
· 10 months ago
That plan to privatize Social Security is looking REAL good now! Clearly it just another kind of Ponzi scheme, designed to force people to throw yet more money at the crooks. Can you imagine if it had gone through?
ceuson
· 10 months ago
Comparing Unemployment stats now with those in the 80's is inaccurate.
Bush overhauled the questionnaire early in his term. Folks were comparing his job creation with Clinton's. He couldn't create jobs, but he could control who was counted as not having one. I think if you exceeded a time limit on looking, you were dropped. Part-time, too, maybe.
Calculate today's unemployment by Clinton's questionnaire, then compare. Jon Stewart did this with Sununu, but he didn't explain what he was doing.
Broder, Will, one of them based an argument w/ Krugman @ the stimulus on: our unemployment isn't as bad as in the "old days". I beg to differ, but I don't have the info to recalculate.
movalca
· 10 months ago
The one silver lining that I can see, is that the GOP won't be trying to privatize Social Security any time soon. Who wants to gamble on putting their money in the stock market?
Eileen
· 10 months ago
Americans should be afraid with this inexperienced, fraud in the white house.
Paul in Miami
· 10 months ago
Fraud, my , a strong word. If the republicans were supposed to be so good and righteous to the country, How come we are in such dire straights? At least we would have seen some prosperity to the people, not outsourcing, debt out of control, spending like drunken sailors, scandal after scandal. Add to that an ineffective president controlled by the vice-president and Carl Rowe.Two unimaginable wars and spending to match with thousands of American soldiers dead. Obama would have seen a country handed to him in much better shape. Unlike his predecessor, that was handed a country in great shape with little debt by Clinton. So the country is a mess and never having been seen in a while. This fraud is at least trying to correct the mess. Unlike W who was playing the self-serving game to his rich buddies.
mr money in the bank
· 10 months ago
First let's get things straight - it was Carter's recession that Reagan fixed. That's the only way to even tie in Reagan. This current fraud of a government economic policy was created during the Clinton years so this should aptly be called the Clinton Recession/Depression/Collapse/Devestation. More and more economists are pointing fingers back to old data and predictions when he started ripping everything apart and jacking taxes to the moon, and they were right! You people need to vote these jokers out of office and then BAN any lawyer from ever running for POTUS again! They don't know how to add - just lie.
Jack
· 10 months ago
Its difficult to stabilize the economy by a stimulus package because of our huge trade and federal deficits - go out and buy helps China as much as us. The problem is that we need to build from the ground up and building from the ground up means infrastructure improvements and renewable energy investment and all that takes time and people are tired and angry and hoping for a better tomorrow.
I want to stay away from the blame game - if you want to read what Bush did and why he should not have cut taxes read Lester Thurow's Book. And by the way it was Johnson (LBJ) not Carter who caused the problem - right party wrong guy. Johnson tried to win the war on poverty and the Viet Nam war without raising taxes. Reagan was willing to let interest rates go up the flag pole - I paid 20.5% on my car loan until I got it re-finaced down to 16%. Home loans were 16.66% - those were wild times and yes they killed inflation but we had 9.6 and 9.7 % unemployment for two years - over a million people lost jobs and didn't work full time again with benefits again until Bill Clinton's second term - Lester Thurow - The Future of Capitalism.
empire
· 10 months ago
all democrats have to go NOW!
shawn
· 10 months ago
banks take our hard earned money give us 3% int and charge 18% for credit cards funded by our money things will not change. They should be held highly accountable for their fraudulant practices when, the risk they take with our money, fails. If they get bailed-out they should not be able to turn a profit out side pay roll expenses until such bail out money is payed in full. It's an extreme measure i know, but so is asking the very people you robbed of their life savings to bail you out os trouble
All Comments
The Conservative Corollary to the Stockdale Paradox: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to ignore the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Thank God the Repubs didn't achieve their dreams of putting Social Security into the stock market.
-----
Yeah, that's their attitude.
Just keep throwing other people's money on the fire.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/chart...
not sure the accuracy of this chart
I don't think that money is coming back, it's gone.. what we should do is tax transactions, and raise upper tax rates to 90% to get some of the money back. let the ultra-wealthy flee the country, and we'll re-build a strong middle class much easier without thier politics in the way.
anyone who is retired should not have $ in the stock markets under any scenario.
"savings
Definition
Portion of disposable income not spent on consumption of consumer goods but accumulated or invested—directly in capital equipment or in paying off a home mortgage, or indirectly through purchase of securities."
Which one is not like the other two.
So where do you think all this wealth is going?
Wanna know how the banksters are sticking it to the American people, read this one:
Jobless hit with bank fees on benefits
Rich, i think you have the right idea to get out of stocks and stay out - our family is doing likewise. I have a feeling that we won't be the only ones - there will be millions of people who won't ever trust the Dow again.
Not every company carries those, tho.
i wish there was a gov't run investment bank where you might not get the best return, but it would be invested in the people directly. you could point your 401 to it and they would manage according to your nearness to retirement.
It would make sense for anyone living overseas...free calls to the states on line!
John and Chris should investigate this, as well as anyone who wants to save money.
I bought 5 years of phone service for $60.
So far, all the calls made have been clear and crisp, and I get a voice mail box.
We all have to find ways to save the money we have left...
I bought one about 6 months ago....and LOVE IT! A friend suggested it to me after she had it for a year. After several months of using it with no problems I'm getting ready to tell AT&T adios as well.
I use one of those megabanks that have banking, investments, insurance--you know, one of the ones Phil Gramm dreamed up. It was just my local bank originally, but it kept getting bought by bigger and bigger banks 'til it because one of those Nightmares on Wall Street.
Anyway, as soon as it starting mixing banking and investments, I had to beat their investment guys off with a stick every time I walked in there. Hell, sometimes they'd just call me out of the blue and say "your savings balance is kind of high, let's set up an appointment so we can put that money to better use."
God, I'm so glad I didn't trust those jerks.
"credit union" check it out...
I've been meaning to look into one.
New York Post Apologizes for Chimp Cartoon
By Sewell Chan
The New York Post, which was the subject of a protest outside its Midtown headquarters and continued criticism from elected officials on Thursday over the publication of an editorial cartoon that linked a chimpanzee to the economic stimulus package, has issued an apology “to those who were offended,” while maintaining that the cartoon was not intended to be racist.
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/ne...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225#symb...
He chose not to complain. That would have cost another 50 cents. So he took out some of the money and then decided to pull out the rest. But that made two withdrawals on the same day, and that was $1.50.
For hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs during the recession, there's a new twist to their financial pain: Even when they're collecting unemployment benefits, they're paying the bank just to get the money -- or even to call customer service to complain about it.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/02/19/us/A...
What we need to do is strengthen social security.
Bush overhauled the questionnaire early in his term. Folks were comparing his job creation with Clinton's. He couldn't create jobs, but he could control who was counted as not having one. I think if you exceeded a time limit on looking, you were dropped. Part-time, too, maybe.
Calculate today's unemployment by Clinton's questionnaire, then compare. Jon Stewart did this with Sununu, but he didn't explain what he was doing.
Broder, Will, one of them based an argument w/ Krugman @ the stimulus on: our unemployment isn't as bad as in the "old days". I beg to differ, but I don't have the info to recalculate.
The problem is that we need to build from the ground up and building from the ground up means infrastructure improvements and renewable energy investment and all that takes time and people are tired and angry and hoping for a better tomorrow.
I want to stay away from the blame game - if you want to read what Bush did and why he should not have cut taxes read Lester Thurow's Book. And by the way it was Johnson (LBJ) not Carter who caused the problem - right party wrong guy. Johnson tried to win the war on poverty and the Viet Nam war without raising taxes.
Reagan was willing to let interest rates go up the flag pole - I paid 20.5% on my car loan until I got it re-finaced down to 16%.
Home loans were 16.66% - those were wild times and yes they killed inflation but we had 9.6 and 9.7 % unemployment for two years - over a million people lost jobs and didn't work full time again with benefits again until Bill Clinton's second term - Lester Thurow - The Future of Capitalism.