DISQUS

skeptic · 1 year ago

The proof will be in the pudding on Nov. 4th! I don't think that it will be a GOP pudding either. They are running scared.

Dave of the Jungle · 1 year ago

Preachers preaching to the choir.

scottinsf · 1 year ago

AP is irrelevant. They know that and are lashing out while they think they still can.

Kind of like Zogby and their crap polls.

grandma · 1 year ago

Ahhh...so that explains the headline on Drudge...he's been posting odd polls for a while now.

persephone · 1 year ago

The AP poll is flawed and misrepresentative. However, if it motivates would-be Obama voters to get to the polls--than it's fine--because we cannot allow ourselves to become too overconfident! It's a danger for Obama-supporters to think that we've got this thing in the bag. We need EVERY single person who will vote for Obama, to actually GO VOTE! ...And, to get other Obama-voters to the polls!

Older_Wiser · 1 year ago

I don't know about all that, and I doubt the population of the evangelicals is almost half of the population, according to that poll, anyway.

But did anyone see Tweety take Pfotenhauer apart just now when she tried to spin Palin's remarks on being VP? What is it with these Rethug women? Are they just wilfully ignorant, do they think we're stupid, or do Rethug men just like to sacrifice them by putting them out there to defend ignorance? Tweety was as relentless with old Nancy as he was with Bachmann...it may be her last time on his show, too. (Big sign of relief here.)

scytherius · 1 year ago

Good. Keep Dems scared. Let's make sure not a single one stays home. Let's use fear to our advantage this time.

FunMe · 1 year ago

I never thought about this way. Good point!

michaelt · 1 year ago

i'm all for anything that keeps the butt cheeks of obama voters tight. don't get complacent. run like your behind.

Steve_in_CNJ · 1 year ago

or your nose -- whatever it takes.

KarenMrsLloydRichards · 1 year ago

Ron Fournier = Baghdad Bob

Cjeffery · 1 year ago

Good, We need the polls to stay close so we can get a good turnout. Every vote counts people, Lets go phone calls to make a doors to knock on.

Zorba · 1 year ago

I agree. We all know that AP has been in the tank for McCain since the beginning, but we need to remain committed and vigilant. Complacency could be deadly.

SgtHudson · 1 year ago

Cjeffrey - true, true. The only thing that can beat Obama is Dem complacency!

houstonray · 1 year ago

Ironically, for the first time ever, I got a Zogby polling call! My caller ID showed "unknown caller" and I almost didn't answer it but I decided to on a whim. It was Zogby International polling about the election and other topics. Kinda cool. A couple of 'trick questions' (IMHO) but it gave me some insight into how these things work.

Anyway, they got my opinions!

aquarius2 · 1 year ago

This is weird. When I checked this morning before I went to work, some headline can't remember where, stated Obama had a double digit lead.

Now how the hell does that drop to a tie in 8 hours/?

tlsintx · 1 year ago

one negative about a close race in the polls is that the GOPers can more easily jack with the votes and it's less noticeable...i'm convinced they control enough voting machines to flip a few thousand votes here and there...

we need a landslide

Skycat · 1 year ago

This provides an illustration what we are up against. It is not a pretty picture. Read it at your peril.

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes

nsr · 1 year ago

McCain tells western PA that he thinks they're racists:
"You know, I think you may have noticed that Senator Obama's supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about Western Pennsylvania lately," McCain told the audience in the town of Moon Township. "And you know, I couldn't agree with them more...I couldn't disagree with you. I couldn't agree with you more than the fact that Western Pennsylvania is the most patriotic, most god-loving, most, most patriotic part of America, and this is a great part of the country."

SgtHudson · 1 year ago

If 45% of the AP poll is really evangelicals & born-agains - and the best they can do it to pull within 1% of Obama - that's STILL bad news for McCain/Palin.

Indigo · 1 year ago

The story was reported as the most reliable and factual poll yet by the Orlando NBC outlet which has added a thread of its own to the discussion. You see, whites don't vote for blacks so that proves that Obama will loose Florida. Thank you, NBC affiliate, WESH-TV, Orlando, Florid'oh.

lovely100 · 1 year ago

that is such a stupid comment to make.. It makes no sense and has no substance...

Indigo · 1 year ago

Do your parents know you're blogging with adults?

Verchiel · 1 year ago

That darned liberal media: STILL not f'ing liberal.

swe123 · 1 year ago

Well, my daughter and republican son-in-law, both white evangelical Christians are voting for Obama, first time for my son-in-law who is also trying to change some of his relatives minds in Northwest Pennsylvania.

Leiden · 1 year ago

The Presidential election is actually decided in the Electoral College after 50 separate State elections.
270 electoral votes are needed in the Electoral College to win the Presidency.
On October 21, 2008, RealClearPolitics.com was predicting:
Obama 286
McCain 155
Undecided 97
So either candidate could still get the 270 votes needed to win at this point!

The10/19/2008 CNN poll of 764 likely voters had Obama with 51%, McCain 46%.
The 10/21 Hotline/FD poll of 782 likely voters had Obama with 47%, McCain 42%
The10/21 ABC poll of 1330 likely voter had Obama with 54%, McCain 43%
The 10/21 Rasmussen poll of 3000 likely voters had Obama 51%, McCain 45%
The 10/21 Gallup poll of 2299 likely voters had Obama 52%, McCain 44%
The 10/21 Zogby poll of 1208 likely voters had Obama 52%, McCain 42%
The 10/19/ Pew poll of 2382 likely voters had Obama with 53%, McCain 39%.

So, you can see that polls taken at the same time can report different findings.
The AP poll is very suspicious because it shows results so different from the other polls.

FunMe · 1 year ago

Sidoti ... she's so "giddy".

Also, very unprofessional. She acts so childish as if this is her first time at the rodeo and the local politician is in her high school and SHE gets to interview him. How exciting is that? Yipee!

cowboyneok · 1 year ago

Put aside their bias? Impossible.

msirt · 1 year ago

Associated Press to the rescue!

Da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-
da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-ta-daaaaa! CHARGE!!!

43magnolia4u · 1 year ago

I have been an ardent Obama supporter since spring 2007, and, in my objective opinion, all three presidential debates had no clearcut winner. Yet focus group after focus group and poll after poll showed Obama declared the winner overwhelmingly. To me that means that the "undecideds" are really not undecided. They support Obama but just can't make that last great leap yet. So, I agree with you that the newest AP poll is not credible, and I wrote them and told them so.

ekwhite · 1 year ago

It doesn't matter what the polls say anyway. We should work as if the race is tied. Get out the vote is going to be needed to counteract the active voter suppression by the Goopers.

KISSman · 1 year ago

I knew this poll was nonsense. It didn't jive with any other poll out there.

Unfortunately, the AP's poll results get printed everywhere because they're the AP. So the story everywhere today is that the race is 'dead-even' even though no other poll backs the AP's numbers up. Not even FOX's poll today agreed with them!

kglore · 1 year ago

People before you think the poll is accurate or not, you need to learn to look at the internal numbers of each poll like what % of respondents identify as Dem, Rep, or Independent. If you link to the actual AP poll results you will see why this poll has the race so close. First, in the actual text of the article is this:Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters. That should make you wonder how their likely voter spread is only 1%. But when you analyze their breakdown of who they asked, you find a clear bias toward white conservative (39% vs. 23% liberals polled) voters aged 30-49 (38% vs. 22% for 50-64 yrs and 17% for 65 and over) who live in rural areas (36%) and suburban areas (38%) compared to only 24% who live in urban areas. Even the regional breakdown is biased with 36% coming from the south, 23% from the west, 22% from the midwest, and only 19% from the northeast. Even the breakdown of Evangelical Christian (45%) vs. non-Evangelical (52%) is much higher than the national average. So should we be surprised that rural and suburban white Evangelical Christians from the south are choosing Obama by one point more than McCain? All of these demographics that heavily favor McCain should give McCain higher poll numbers. Polls don't lie, but how they sample who their likely voter group will be can greatly skew the real findings that even in their own AP poll Obama is up by 10 points among all those polled. Does the AP think we are stupid? Now if only we can somehow stop those ESS voting machines from flipping from Democrat to Republican like they're currently doing in West Virginia early voting and in Ohio in 2004!

JoeDaplumber · 1 year ago

Other problems with this poll.

88% identified themselves as Christian. The average in the U.S. is about 76%

35% of the people in this poll approve of the job George Bush is doing. The national average is 23%.

22% called themselves liberal, 38% called themselves conservative.

68% did not have a college degree.

68% said they were married, a far greater percentage than national
averages, and Obama is much stronger among non-married voters.

78% said they lived outside of urban areas.

81% identified themselves as white.

57% said they were from the south or midwest.

I don't think this is well-balanced slice of the pie.

texasyojimbo · 1 year ago

It's quite evident from the internals that the AP was conducting a poll of Real America, whereas all the other pollsters include voters from both Real America and Unreal America (possibly even Daily Show viewers).

franzjosefaut · 1 year ago

polling = manipulating; last stand for fanatics! (see Custer...)

shell · 1 year ago

One thing I learned in college, when doing a survey, was that you can get ANY result you want -- in how you pick your respondents.

For example, say you were conducting a poll and used 100% of non-college-educated people. The questions had to do with college experience. Now do the poll with only college-educated people. Would your results be different?

Another one: The question involved the experience of being pregnant. The respondents are all males. Then take it with only females. Would THESE results be different?

Another one: The question is "What is it like to be gay?" First set: homophobes. 2nd set: gay men.

You get what I mean.

LASR · 1 year ago

"One thing I learned in college, when doing a survey, was that you can get ANY result you want "

You didn't go to a good college.

shell · 1 year ago

How so? For one thing, we learned that you NEVER just say someone is wrong -- you say WHY they are wrong.

You didn't do that. A statement like "You didn't go to a good college." is a throw-away statement. IF you think this, tell why.

It won't work with me, though. It is a no-brainer.

LASR · 1 year ago

<<You didn't do that. A statement like "You didn't go to a good college." is a throw-away statement. IF you think this, tell why.>>

People who don't understand science think that scientists can (and do) just falsely prove anything they want.. You are giving a variant of "You can prove anything with data". I hear this all the time with anti-scientists like yourself and Rush Limbaugh (I realize that you are polar opposite fanatics).

shell · 1 year ago

It is very interesting that you always describe me with RUSH lines. And no, I am not like him -- even the polar opposite. And I DO use science, which you obviously don't. You see, I am not a scientist, but my brother is -- he has a PhD in microbiology. I have learned a few things from him. But one thing I learned myself is: POLLS are not SCIENCE. To compare them is foolhardy.

And it is true -- you CAN prove anything you want from polls. It is not SCIENCE. I thought my examples would be understood by you, but apparently not. Nonetheless, I stand by what I said. Another example: WHY do you suppose some polls are considered trustworthy (Gallup) and some aren't (Zogby)? If all polls are equal, why are some respected, and some aren't? AND if all polls are equal, why do you supposed this poll is so different from all others? If ALL polls are equal, why is this? Explain, please.

P.S. Your description of me as "anti-science" is a hoot! I will have to show this to my brother.

LASR · 1 year ago

<<And I DO use science, which you obviously don't>>

I'm a physicist.

Tell me what you use "science" for.

<<And it is true -- you CAN prove anything you want from polls.>>

Suppose you wanted to prove Nader will win, without looking foolish, how would you do it?

<<WHY do you suppose some polls are considered trustworthy (Gallup) and some aren't (Zogby)? If all polls are equal, why are some respected, and some aren't?>>

You seemed to think I said all polls are equal. You are not able to follow what I am even saying.

The reason why polls give different results is the same reason why different scientific methods give different results. Often there is no one single undisputable way to make a scientific estimate. And ironically, polls DO give answers that are almost the same. In "science" often quite valid metjhods of estimating something will be off by factors of 2 or greater.

shell · 1 year ago

hahahaha You try too hard. IF you are a "physicist," you would not put SCIENCE in quotes. Are there cheaters in science? Sure. But they cheat -- thay are not being honest. Of course, in some hypotheses, there are NO proofs, just speculation. Educated, yes. But proof? No.

Tell you what I use science for? How long do you have? 10 years?

Your question about Nader is impossible. I CAN tell you how he would win, but NOT without looking foolish. Which is my point. That poll this article is about is foolish and cannot be supported without looking foolish. Now, to "prove" my point, should I call you a Dittohead, like you amusingly did?

I follow what you are saying. It isn't hard. IF it is true that you are a physicist (and I am having my doubts), you must be very young. If older, you need to get your head out of your butt. Just because you think you are smarter than 99% of Americans doesn't make it so.

And, once again, SOME scientific experiments CAN come up with different results, depending on the methods used. BUT -- what are the methods? Are THEY equal? Hmmmm -- let's see. I will prove that water can extend beyond the top of a glass. I can prove this by SEEING it. Does this mean you can fill the glass 5 inches above the top of the glass? Of course not. But, it was proven!

Get real. Many Americans are not as dumb as you assume, to make yourseld look smarter.

LASR · 1 year ago

<<You try too hard. IF you are a "physicist," you would not put SCIENCE in quotes.>>

If you were a high school grad yopu would know that I put "science" in quotes because I was mocking your claim that you use "science". You use science like Creationist "scientists" do. Oh, I put in quotes again!

LASR · 1 year ago

<<Tell you what I use science for? How long do you have? 10 years?>>

Just as I thought.--you couldn't answer.

Just as I knew that you could not give an actual reason why that poll was supposedly flawed, other than that a crackpot website lied to you about evangelicals being over-represented.

LASR · 1 year ago

"For one thing, we learned that you NEVER just say someone is wrong -- you say WHY they are wrong.
"

Strange you would say that, being that you never said why the AP poll was wrong. Or was there an implied "mega-ditto" to the original critic, with you implicitly taking the position that he was your Leader, and had to be correct?

Tell me why you think the poll was wrong.

shell · 1 year ago

Because of WHO they polled. In that poll, something like 1/3 - 1/2 of the people polled were evangelicals. This is not representative of the whole country, or even a state. Why do you suppose this poll came out so different than all other polls? Because of WHO they polled.

As in my post about a poll about childbirth being answered by males only. Do you really think this would be accurate? Yet, they can truthfully say the number polled was 1,000, or 10,000, or whatever. Most Americans would think, "Wow! 1,000 polled! That's a large number -- the poll MUST be correct!" No. It. Isn't.

LASR · 1 year ago

<<Because of WHO they polled. In that poll, something like 1/3 - 1/2 of the people polled were evangelicals. This is not representative of the whole country, or even a state>>

Did you even look at the poll? You didn't, right? You just believe the nonsense you read from someone angry the poll did not go his way.

technik · 1 year ago

keep your eyes on the voting machines from now on till after the polls close demos. i wouldn't trust those mcCainets around a voting machine by themselves. we are going to win and win fair.(P.S. i;ve haven;t seen a single mcCain/palen sign around here......southern new jersey)we don;t have any 'joe the plumber' either. i wonder how much they are paying "joe the plumber to continue his act?

bettie · 1 year ago

John,

Why is no one in the media mentioning that the AP pollster is John McCain's former pollster? GOP pollster Ed Rollins was the only one to mention this on Lou Dobb's show of all places. Please call the AP on this one, such a conflict of interest.

Ed Rollins dismissed the poll yesterday b/c the pollster was a former McCain pollster and Rollins had not yet seen the internals. I cannot belive the AP would pull something like this so close to the election. Did they always use this former McCain pollster? I hope the blogs call out the AP on this one!!

bettie · 1 year ago

from the 10/22 CNN Lou Dobbs transcript:

DOBBS: Dismissing the 1 percent and 2 percent poll results?

ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I don't dismiss them, but you know I haven't seen the internal ones. SO I don't know if they overrated the Republicans. Ed Gollus who does the AP poll has been McCain's pollster. He's a first-rate pollster, but you don't know what to make of this. The critical thing is that Obama in the key states now has the lead. It's not a national poll. It's state by state. There are three or four that matter that are within four points of each other. If somehow those shift in the next week, then you have a real horse race here.

fl79tr · 1 year ago

Coming from Florida, this worries me, it seems like all they really need to do is make it look close and then they can steal it. Our Democracy is only as strong as our mutual faith that the system is fair.