DISQUS

AMERICAblog: Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

  • AdmNaismith · 1 year ago
    Lords, I hope he's right. we need at least that wide a margin to keep Karl Rove from stealing this thing for the third time.
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
    Aiiieeeeeeee!!!!!
    McMonster!!!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjIjgbePNCI
  • cheetos · 1 year ago
    Finally some good news.
  • vkobaya · 1 year ago
    Damn! I was hoping for at least 70%. That is what Bush and the Repigs deserve. Actually, what they really deserve is to be dragged out of the White House in shackles and manacles, paraded through the streets and pilloried in the public square in the center of every city in the nation before being imprisoned for life. Then, I'd feel they don't need to be executed, in fact, I would wish them a very long, long life.
  • vkobaya · 1 year ago
    It isn't that I think Obama is that all fired awesome, but that I think Bush, McCain, Palin and the Republican are all fire and brimstone evil. Obama makes me regret every day more and more that I am stuck with voting for him. If he weren't a Black man, I would think he is a Southern redneck who somehow managed to run as a Democrat, a la Clinton. I voted for Clinton twice with a clothes pin on my nose both times.
  • HereinDC · 1 year ago
    Only a "crushing" victory?
    Damn.
    :)
  • naschkatzehussein · 1 year ago
    The Mother of All Crushing Victories.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    I'm not sure how a 54% victory in pop vote seals a "crushing victory" in electoral votes. I'd like to see more about that. However, it is nice to hear.

    Until then, Run like you are losing.
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    It probably would. Especially this year where there are so many more swing states than in previous years.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    possible, but with only one forecaster with that model, I'm skeptical.
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
  • freshpaint · 1 year ago
    Hey, that's great! Now we don't have to spend our time canvassing door to door, contributing to campaigns, hawking t-shirts at fundraisers, bitching about Palin/McBush -- heck, we don't even have to go out and vote. Just sit back and let it just wash over us...

    Rove eats guys like this as a midday snack.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    yup, complacency and overconfidence would be kind of dangerous right now.
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    Don't buy it. He didn't factor in the "America is full of retards" variable. When you factor that in my calculations put McCain at 50% and Obama at 47%
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
    • There is no retard swing vote.
    I'm reminded of the fellow in my mother's precinct who jammed a write-in pencil through the plastic and metal ballot screen wrecking the voting machine.
  • sukabi1 · 1 year ago
    he may have been making an editorial comment about the "nature" of voting machines...
  • BarbaraGordon · 1 year ago
    Does the "time for change" model take Diebold machines into account?
  • vwcat · 1 year ago
    Out of curiosity I went to the liveblog of 360 tonight and wow! All the comments were complaints about the media obsession of Palin and the fluff they shovel.
    People are pissed off. They are sick of hearing about this ditz and sick of the media obsession and chasing her around like a 1930s movie star and doing blow by blow coverage.
    People are sick of the gossip, the gop game playing and sick of the mud and sick of Palin.
    These are average people who go online to that site everynight and post to the program and CNN got an earful. It's fun to read.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    been there, people here are nice compared to that blog. they are downright ugly on that blog.
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    Ditz??? Haven't heard that term in awhile. I like it. It is Palin the ditz from now on.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    Leno - campaign is down to one issue, make-up on farm animals
  • jescot · 1 year ago
    Thank you for posting as today I offiically decided not to freak out anymore about this election. What made me calm down?...its all gut and not scientific in the least but I figure the Palin excitement is like cotton candy...its sweet and nice..fun but I think everyone has eaten too much and the country is already starting to get a big headache. I also think that when things t calm down she will have only excited the Republican hard core base ....As we really learn more the middle (if she has any niddel right now) will start to melt away . Thsi election is coming down to new voters and tradional dems who ARE fired up about winning this election. Just my two cents.
  • hawkseye · 1 year ago
    I think you are right.
  • houstonray · 1 year ago
    OT: Palin is going to have a "primetime special" on ABC Friday night (how that doesn't violate some election law, I have no idea), but anyway, while she is on air, for the second time, a major American city will be under threat of disaster: Hurricane Ike is bearing down on us here in Houston/Galveston. Could be very VERY bad for the area...why is it that Republican's seem to get their thunder stolen by, well, THUNDER?

    God Hates Republicans...
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    I'm sorry. a "primetime special"? WTF is that? Not like 30 minutes or something? No! What would that be about? Republican MILF book burners? You aren't serious.
  • houstonray · 1 year ago
    They are going to have a special biography of her, her big charlie gibson interview, etc on a "Special Edition" of 20/20....
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
    Lots of emotion when Charlie and Mooselini chat before a roaring book fire...
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    Too bad. I'd rather see a special biospy of her and a big Chalie Brown interview.
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    Well, it must be because they are sinners and it's god's punishment, at least that is what those right wing whackos would say if it concerned the Dems. Honestly, can't you just see Dobson ranting about it.
  • BarbaraGordon · 1 year ago
    Front page of the NY Times reports that Bill Clinton will campaign for Obama during the last 8 weeks of the campaign. Can't wait to hear Clinton compare McCain to Bush. Should definitely help.
  • Steve_in_CNJ · 1 year ago
    one thing a close election does is to get people off their butts.
  • hawkseye · 1 year ago
    And half the media will be following him around. That's great news!
  • Steve_in_CNJ · 1 year ago
    you'd be nuts to trust a statistical model trained on 5 cases. but as tom friedman wrote today, if mccain wins with two 50-pound balls chained to his ankles (bush and the economy) he goes into the pantheon of olympic phenoms (think michael phelps).
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    and Dems, including Obama, would go into the abyss. Rightly so for not being prepared to fight.
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    We must be vigilant or we will lose.
    However, it is nice to have someone calculating rather than polling. Polling has not worked for the last couple elections. It doesn’t factor in people who lie about who they support nor does it poll people with cell phones.
  • moreleesafer · 1 year ago
    just donated money to moveon.org to help them out if they decide to put out some ads. i am going to donate more to obama as well. have to cover all the bases.
  • devlzadvocate · 1 year ago
    well it had to be partially based on polls plus look at all the disclaimers, uh, race, partisan politics, third-party candidates, I had too much to drink when I did this.
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    Did you just see what Obama said on Letterman: he said Palin was the lipstick. God damn it, whats wrong with you. Now we are going to have to deal with this for another two days, or god knows how long.
  • cheetos · 1 year ago
    So, that would make McCain the pig. Uh-oh, here it comes.
  • houstonray · 1 year ago
    How DARE they call a POW a PIG!

    <tongue in cheek>
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
    Mourning Joe was a bit too frank about his masters this morning:
    http://mediamatters.org/items/200809100018

    MATTHEWS: I want to ask you, what will we talk about two days from now?

    SCARBOROUGH: Whatever the McCain campaign wants us to talk about, because the McCain campaign is assertive.
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    Damn! I wrote about that early this morning and NOT ONE person commented. I realize if you just take Joe's statement it is very condemning for MSNBC's impartial staff. It was really in the context that the McCain campaign is driving the news.

    I don't care what the context was, I just thought that someone, anyone should have run with "impartial" Joe's comment.
  • Rob Mule · 1 year ago
    I don't understand unless it's because he's such an obvious bullying buffoon...But, it wasn't so much dumb, pouty Joe's McPlug exhuberence but the sly look Andrea Mitchell gave to Tweety just after Joe blows his own cover that is really interesting and pathetic in it apparant slyness...These clowns, and I don't mean to harp exclusively on MSTIM but they are so harpable, are so vaudeville, so passé unless it bites as did Tweety's burro story.
    The suits don't get it...PR's over...TMZ rules but fair ("Ha!", as Tweety might snort)...there may be a hidden camera in the urinal, generic Congressman but there's definately one on my lapel.
  • grandma · 1 year ago
    I think he's doing GREAT on Letterman !
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    He just said Palin was the lipstick. That was completely unnecessary, he needed to let it go, he just added fuel to the fire. Now we are going to have to hear the Repukes complain about how "sexist" he is for the next week. And lord knows Hillary is not going to put an end to this madness, and she really could.
  • grandma · 1 year ago
    Well...it was a given that Letterman would bring it up...lol
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    I thought the same thing. I really wish he would have stuck to the "phony outrage" and left it at that.
  • DavidinChelseaMA · 1 year ago
    Big deal. Lipstick, in this case, is a reference to a telegenic and well-spoken person being added on to what is a bunch of crappy Republican policies (the policies are the "pig") that McCain is pushing.
  • hawkseye · 1 year ago
    Thanks for the post! It will help me sleep better tonight.
  • grandma · 1 year ago
    me too....Obama has GOT to win...he just HAS to !!
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    He has to win, but he won't. Too many stupid people in this country. Maybe once all of the bigoted baby boomers die, then just maybe liberals might have a chance.
  • grandma · 1 year ago
    Well yeah...there are some stupid people.....what surprises me is the number of people voting for McCain cause Obama would raise their taxes....what a lie that McCain is spinning on that.

    The more you make under McCain the less taxes you pay.

    Good chart here of both Obama/McCain tax proposal...showing the difference

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/st...
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    Not all the baby boomers are bigoted. Most of us are pretty cool people who have worked hard and paved the way to civil rights, women's liberation, and political confrontation through discourse. Prior to the baby boomers, we were a 1950s nation. We woke people up from the Ozzie and Harriet pipe dream.
    You are way too cynical.
  • mirth · 1 year ago
    *applause* for Karol's comment. Especially the "way too cynical" part.
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    You know, mirth, I have always felt music best identifies a generation. Mine gave the world Dylan, the Beatles, the Stones and such songs as "Blowing in the Wind" ....
  • mirth · 1 year ago
    Yes your generation gave us great music, but, as you mention above, it also gave us advances in civil rights and ended a filthy war and broke the stranglehold of 50s repression.

    In their 20s, many if not most Boomers were "in the streets." What those in their 20s today will do for their country remains to be seen.
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    No offense but the vast majority are:
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/8881/US-Next-Down-Ai...

    I'm in my 20's so I figure by the time I'm in my 50's life in America will be better with all the baby boomers dead, or physically and mentally incapable to vote (No offense). Until then I'm just going to have to deal with it I guess.
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
    There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain.
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    If your generation worked half as hard to bring about change as mine, we wouldn't be in this mess. So many younger ones take things for granted and sit on their complaisant do nothing butts.
    It’s been forty years since I have seen the youth riled up and bucking the system.
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    And who won in '68? Geez let me think... Oh that's right, NIXON!

    You guys even had a draft, and the youth back then still didn't come out and vote. Why don't you take a look in the mirror for a second.
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    You don't know what you're talking about. I am done with your ignorance.
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
    The voting age at that time was 21,so the vast majority of baby boomers were still too young to vote.
  • cheetos · 1 year ago
    Oh dear. You know, technically even Obama is a 'baby boomer'.
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    LOL! How can you say "baby boomers dead or physically and mentally incapable to vote" and then say NO Offense? It isn't the baby boomers that are creating this problem, it is mostly older bigoted citizens over (just guessing) 70 and up. Every generation has it's ups and downs.
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
    I wanted to be Maynard G. Krebs when I grew up

    http://www.fortunecity.com/meltingpot/lawrence/...
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
  • hawkseye · 1 year ago
    I hate to pull age rank on you, but, respectfully, the Ozzie and Harriet years brought on the Golden Age of Civil Rights: good court decisions, good new laws and a nation respectful of them.
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
    A liberal baby boomer is Not an oxymoron, but if just the bigoted ones pass on, America will be a better place. This hippy hasn't retired just yet!
  • ClintonHater · 1 year ago
    No, but all the acid fucked with their brains and now they are conservative.
  • unrepentant_expat · 1 year ago
    That was the brown acid, they should have stuck to the purple haze.
  • attyroz · 1 year ago
    That's right. This hippy is not planning on dying and I ain't retiring yet either. OBAMA!
  • attyroz · 1 year ago
    I am 61 and a staunch financially contributing Obama woman. All baby boomers aren't stupid. Don't give up hope. The mainstream polls are incomplete.
  • lucky hussein · 1 year ago
    As important as voting is, it's really the bare minimum for citizens of a democracy, imo.
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    Well, that was interesting but I will stick to Ohio as the bellweather state. BTW I sure as hell hope someone is checking the voting policies and machines in Ohio and Florida.
  • grandma · 1 year ago
    God I hope so too !...
  • Joneses · 1 year ago
    I'm so sick and tire of Palin. Let's get to the issues of America. G__Damn it, Country First!
  • An_American_Karol · 1 year ago
    Amen
  • aquarius2 · 1 year ago
    OT

    Just saw a new McCain attack ad (is there any other) about Obama's lipstick comment, This ad was truly disgusting. They are going after Obama by using the key words "good looking, "lying and I can't remember what else.

    The ad closes with "It is downright disrespectful" Just when I was about to calm down this damn ad comes on.

    I want to know who is creating these ads, and IF the McCain campaign is actually paying for all these ads. I really wish I had better research skills because I would be rooting out the SOB's. McCain and Obama supposedly have about the same amount of money, yet it seems every day, at least here in Denver, there is a new attack ad.
  • akryan · 1 year ago
    I'll beleive it when I see it.
  • DavidinChelseaMA · 1 year ago
    They played the sexism card too far with Palin. Now it will bite them on the ass. The whole manufactured outrage thing is sooo transparent. And the American people know it.

    Last night on Letterman, Obama said that "HAD HE MEANT IT... (i.e. HE DID NOT MEAN ANYTHING OF THE SORT, OBVIOUSLY)...she would have been the lipstick."

    Someone commented in this thread earlier that they were concerned that he brought up the word "lipstick"again. They couldn't be more wrong on this one. The CONTEXT of the comment on Letterman was key. Obama started off the statement on Letterman by saying , "HAD I MEANT IT." He knocked the lipstick nonsense out of the park. That clarified the whole issue and dismissed it all in one.

    He is a brilliant candidate. And he will be a brilliant president.
  • ron071 · 1 year ago
    Does the Right's Absurdity Know No Bounds? The documented use of the lipstick-pig phrase by Repubicans is astoundingly in excess of use by Democrats. What's it all about Alfie?

    WANT MORE PAIN ???????VOTE McSAME??????????
  • TrappedinaRedState · 1 year ago
    Although this is a feel-good article and welcome news I don't feel that we can let our guard down or even take an extra breath. This is definitely the most important election of my lifetime and yours. Imagine a Supreme Court shaped by the picks of this pandering old fool and his evangelical work wife.
  • attyroz · 1 year ago
    Why are people senselessly attacking the babyboomers? This is not an age war. It is ideological and racial. I don't know any black babyboomers who are voting for Palin. Don't use reverse bigotry to undermine your own discourse.
  • ron071 · 1 year ago
    I tend to agree with Abromowitz whose polling record is impressive. What disturbs me is that other large and posiibly " controlled " polling companies are putting out numbers which are suspect. We've already lost the impartiality of the MSM and now the polling companiees may have sold out for $$$$$$$$$$. This would be, to say the least, distrubing to the extreme.