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Telling people AFTER they come out that it's all wrong doesn't do a damn thing. The damage has already been done.
McLoser won't ever be held accountable for it, and the Dems will not sink low enough to sling the same kind of ads back at him. They will take "the high road" because it's not in their nature to fight dirty.
As a result, what should be a sure thing for Obama will turn into the same, ridiculous and asinine carnival that got Bush elected twice.
Untrue, negative and baseless attacks work because PEOPLE ARE STUPID. They always have been, they always will be. That's just a reality. You cannot hold the high road in politics because the evil asshole running against you will cut your achilles tendons at any given opportunity.
Obama can be about "change" and "hope" all he wants, but that won't change the basic makeup of society: 90% idiots and 10% educated.
Guess who wins.
Once we lost our Press, our Democracy was lost as well.
Nealry 100 years later, in the United States, what Hitler discovered is absolutely true - that people are basically ignorant, don't give a rat's ass, etc. That is why Rove can destroy Obama in negative adds - the Dems are spineless, don't know how to fight back, but most importantly, the media is the unchecked propaganda arm of a fascist government. Media whores are a dime a dozen - just pay them enough.
A close election means another theft (and why not, 2000 and 2004 were stolen). Its no wonder we have not corrected the problems with electronic voting machines (no paper trail after 8 years).
Americans are fools - and the theft of the 2008 elections will prove it to the rest of the world. We can hope I suppose. I personally have no expectations that the fascists in control of this gov't will be brought down - there appears to be way to do it.
Obama is way ahead, but McCain has been predestined to win.
Seriously now, Cheney's NOT going to hand over all that un-Constitutional power he's illegally obtained to a Democrat!
I can say this with confidence that if we lose this election because we are too chicken to play the republican game, I will never vote for them again and will start looking for another viable party in line with my perspective, whether they can win or not. The Democrats need to earn this and not expect to win without a fight. Everyone knows, that if McBush wins, this country will go to hell in a hand basket in a hurry. Obama, time to change your MLK strategy to one that will strike back and put that old man back where he belongs.
I also wonder how long the McCain campaign can keep up the pace on the sleazy attack ads. They seem to have "shot their wad" early, painting Obama as elitist, Black, unpatriotic and more of an empty headed celebrity. As this story line becomes old news, they have no new place to go with their ads.
Then you have the right wing email network, which plants rumors and half-truths (or no truths) that circulate among millions (note the "Obama is a Muslim" crap) - and the newspapers which print "letters to the editor" from Republicans who copy and paste parts of these emails as talking points to their local media. You multiply those tactics a few thousand times over in different communities and you have 2004 all over again.
I have thought since the beginning of the campaign that, despite Obama's amazing ability to organize at the grassroots, for some reason we have not managed to establish a rapid response on the local levels. I'm not talking about the big cities here - I'm talking about the thousands of smaller cities and towns and rural areas where all people ever get are right-wing talking points in their newspapers and broadcasting stations. If Democrats are unwilling to challenge the weekly attacks by Kathleen Parker, Coulter, Mona Charen (which are never balanced by McSame attacks by the so-called "liberal" columnists) how do we expect to get the word out?
McSame messes up so much that there have been ample opportunities to use his own record and flipflopping talents against him - and yet I haven't seen one opinion column on the editorial pages of smaller newspapers bringing up a single point. We are so quick to point out bias in reporting specific stories (or non-reporting) and that's great - but if we don't also point out the blatant bias on the editorial pages and talk radio (and recognize their audience) people have little to consider beyond receiving one point of view.
And yes, Obama needs to be more forceful in his responses. He can do that and still look presidential - and his campaign has plenty of fodder with McLame's record to point out in an effective manner. There is no excuse for not making commercials which points out how the McLame campaign is so worried about attacking Obama that he doesn't seem to know his own positions - and doesn't want the American people to know them either. . .but without an effective email network and local grassroots people ready to go on the offensive in the media, I can't see how we are going to stave off the negative campaigning. We cannot simply rely on the assumption that the American people are so sick of Republicans that they won't believe them - Rovian tactics could care less about that. Their campaign is to instill enough fear and uncertainty in Obama that people vote for McSame - not because they support him - but they feel they have no other choice. And if we can't even point out that, once again, Republicans believe so little in America that they'd hand us another less-than-mediocre president to tackle huge, pressing problems, then we could end up being stuck with another divisive, disastrous four years of Republican rule.
"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.9 % chance of winning the White House."
during a live debate, either mcsame will blow a gasket... or Obama will make him look like a feeble old warmongering fool... or both.
there's no match when you get them speaking outside of a scripted situation... Obama will wipe the floor with mcsame, on logic alone.
.
as it is, I'd have a hard time keeping a beer shared with john mcsame down.
Half of the people are below average in IQ and half are above. Above average folks can do abstract and critical thinking, below average not so much.
Carter actually led in most polls through the summer and into the early fall because voters didn’t know if they could actually vote for Reagan... By fall, however, as the results of the debates and the opportunity to take Reagan’s measure had settled in, voters finally got comfortable with the idea of him in the Oval Office.
http://pundits.thehill.com/2008/07/23/obama-mcc...
Can anyone recall any of the highlights of the Dukakis administration?
Honestly, Obamas biggest problem is that all of his "supporters" are fair weather and that's on a good day. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Democratic party is like herding a bunch of cats. Instead of fretting over polls we need to be figuring out how to get in lockstep and win, just like the GOP has done for the last 40 years. But we can't because we are all a bunch of cause-heads who can't see the forest for the trees. Actually, that's unfair of blogs like this that have done a lot to be cheerleaders for Obama, I guess I'm just frustrated that it seems like the rest of "the party" can't get it's act together. I've seen almost all of John McCains primary opponents out on the trail stumping for him, with the exception of Richardson I've heard nary a peep from any of the other Dem contenders. You want to get the course of the race changed, get on a phone with them and tell them to get off the bench and start working for the team.
Frankly, I'm impressed that Obama is doing as well as he is giving the startling lack of strong support (not just the "I'll vote for him" stuff) he's gotten so far.
That's just a prediction given the current reality.
Howard Dean and the Dem Party had better decide soon if they are going to defend their candidate because in a few more weeks of this it might be too late. If Obama and his advisors think the Repubs and Rove will go away they better think again, damage is being done not only to Obama but to the other Congressional candidates as well and not being forceful in response confirms to Joe Six Pack that the accusations are true.
The first volleys were baby stuff. VERY troubling that they've been so effective, because the real bad stuff is in the pike and it won't be pretty.
Here's a thought--Rove must be pulling the strings, fighting as hard as he can below the radar, because he's fighting of his life. If Obama wins, he's off to prison.
As I've said before, if Obama doesn't want to join the Dukasis/Kerry choir, he has to fight back, and big time. He has little time, before the Republican narrative starts to set. It's Chicago politics time, baby!
McCain sits on this undeserved pedestal and the Democrats are scared to knock him off. Comparing McCain to Bush is not enough, Democrats have to rip that Maverick mask and cape off of him for good. We need to have Democrats question his age and mental capacity everyday in the MSM and not be afraid to do it.
As far as this poll goes I don't quite trust it but maybe it will make the Democratic voters work harder to get Obama elected.
what would your advice to Obama be on ad strategy? What do you think they need to do?
Go after his record voting against bills supporting the troops.
Have every breathing Democrat holding public office fan the airwaves, hopping mad and dismissive of the doddering McCain.
Repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat.
This is wha's called the political" dog whistle" Dogs only can hear the whistle because of their keen hearing.They are using this with the stupid ADS and talking heads,some press,opinnion media,and bogus polling,trying to rev up their base,with propaganda about how the SEPTUAGENERIAN is doing.
Mccain is being handeled so carefully now,that he's only talking to local media,so gaffes aren't reported and put on the internet.
SO MUCH FOR THE STRAIGHT EXPRESS!!!
Remember how the Vatican attacked Ian Kerezc [aka John Kerry]? That went horribly wrong at many levels, including the incompetence of the Kerezc advisors. Well, it's happening again. You don't break Dean's DNC looser's pattern when Dean's DNC is still around. He's a hinderer, not a helper.
That's only one issue, though. It's complicated by fear and by the irrational concern that it's important to be nice to John McCain because he's just a crazy old man. The fact is, he isn't really crazy, he's monstrously selfish and conceited, inconsistent and undependable, unloving and narcissistic and needs to be called on every one of those disgusting traits.
No more nice, please. It isn't smear tactics when it's the truth!
i've heard Scott Rasmussen himself, sounding decidedly biased against Obama while being interviewed by sean hannity.
what about this poll...?
McCain's problem with working class whites:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com...
Yeah, I trust Gallup.
Time to fight back--I love that line: "It's not a smear if it's the truth!" Let the truth be released . . . it's Chicago politics time, baby!
Right now I think, and rightly so, Obamas tactic is to appear as centrist and mediocre as he possibly can. As much as people would like to think otherwise, this country still is a 51/49 split when it comes to election day for President (Reagan was the last true blow-out that wasn't a carryover from the previous administration like Bush I). I think, from everything I can see, Obamas plan is to put a full court press on after the convention, after he's got a great ground game in EVERY state, a huge war chest, and hopefully an energy "bump" from the convention. For now, he's showing a patience that I find admirable and if anything, McCain has probably gone nuclear way too early and should have saved it.
So again, people should calm down a bit and let Obama do what he's got to do. It seems like, unlike the GOP, every time the Dem politicians and supporters see a tough time, we all go scrambling around trying to change and compromise. It's time to suck it up, develop a long term strategy, and follow it. A lot of the reason the Democrats lose, even when conditions favor them, is that we come off as wishy-washy and indecisive.
Jeeeeez . . .
Obama needs to get back to the issue of change, and why he represents it and McCain does not. The campaign seems mired in the notion that Obama is simply change without having to prove it. Issue and substantive attacks on McCain's positions would aid in solving this issue.
The strategy should NOT focus on hitting back hard, it should focus on hitting first.
HARD!
Go to Daily Kos and give them hell, too . . .
denial . . .
Maybe I'll try again.
All best, Philip
But in regards to the polling, I truly feel that they have not included other polling factors, such as people who only uses cell phones, et al., plus, I believe in keeping the race close the Repugs will try and steal another election. Thats why in all honesty, O needs a good 10 points ahead. I just don't trust the GOP.
They are not going to play fair because they know that a Democratic President and a Democratic House are going to scrutinize all the goodies heaped on them during the Bush/Cheney Administration. The coverage has been beyond biased and will continue to be so--and get worse--as we lead up to the general election. A few instances of exceptions to the rule, are only proving the rule.
Even should Obama begin to pull out all the stops and doing some aggressive ads, the media are going to pick them apart in favor of McCain. They showed us how they failed as journalists during the Swift Boat debacle, and proven they are the enemies of the democratic process by skewing the coverage in favor of the person who will best serve their bottom line.
I don't know how to overcome that--they've been given too much power, and they have too much money invested in seeing that Obama is not elected. This is the corporate-plutocracy that Reagan envisioned lurched to full life and complete power.
The United States of America was a good idea--but money and greed have killed it.
While Obama is still doing well in electoral votes, McCain is increasing his lead in traditional red states. This may account for the closeness of the national polls (even though they are suspect (Gallup Daily has Obama by 3 today)
I check these sites for state by state polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/ob...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama just released an ad tying mccain to big oil but they won't not talk about it.
Obama needs an attack ad that goes over the top. Tying McCain to big oil is a well duh, kind of ad. Just displaying the obvious. The MSM wants controversial before they talk about it. Sad, but that is how it has to be.
Gotta run for now, good seeing you again.
what do you suggest he runs?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109264/Gallup-Daily-...
gallup OBAMA is up 3 points from tie yesterday.
LOL
Not to mention that the Gallup poll is headed by a Xian conservative: George Gallup has published many a book like The Next American Spirituality: Finding God in the Twenty-First Century with a real nut job, Timothy Jones of Conspiracies and the Cross fame--a former Baptist preacher from Tulsa.
Don't expect Gallup to play fair.
THE DNC and Obama should be spendign at least 1/2 their ad money just tieing Bush to McCain ----Over and over again ...trust me it wont get old and its the underlying factor that will peel votes away from the other side of the isle.....MCAIN is Bush - The Neocons are on Mcains team - etc etc etc ...DONT MOVE ON TO ANOTHER ARGUEMENT JUST KEEP HAMMERING THAT ONE SIMPLE POINT !!!!!!!
THE DNC and Obama should be sendign at least 12/2 their ad money just tieign Bush to McCain ----Over and over again ...trust me it wont get old and its the underlying factor that will peel votes away from the other side of the isle.....MCAIN is Bush - The Neocons are on Mcains team - etc etc etc ...DONT MOVE ON TO ANOTHER ARGUEMENT JUST KEEP HAMMERING THAT ONE SIMPLE POINT !!!!!!!
Obama needs to let everyone know why McCain would be a disaster for this country: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/4/1246...
While McCain's ads keep mentioning Obama, he should refer to McCain as "the Republican Party's candidate", thus depriving him of his personal appeal and identifying him with the Party that screwed up. And make the ads have zingers that will get them played repeatedly for free by the tv pundits and anchors the way McCain's do.
On the issue of the military, stress the terrible stresses the heroic all-volunteer army guys have endured and insinuate McCain's bellicose attitude might require a draft to replace them. (That'll wake up some McCain-leaning Moms.) And respond to his "I know how to win wars!" crap with "I know how to win without wars." And, BTW, take note that McCain's college education (Annapolis and the War College) are not the right background for a chief executive of a great nation. Last Annapolis grad who made president was, sigh, Jimmy Carter. And why was General Wes Clark muzzled when he truly noted that John "I know how to win wars" McCain's military heroism did not derive from actual tactical experience. He retired as Captain probably because he was passed over for Admiral, which his father and grandfather had achieved.
Why not drive a stake into the heart of the "flip-flop" slur. If you want to elect a politician who thinks it's bad form to change his mind in the face of new information or changed conditions, then you'll get George Bush, or some other stubborn fool like him.
Let's go balls out on these things. We've got the war chest, let's him them hard!
http://hfdean.blogspot.com/2008/08/obama-big-oi...
1. Red meat for the base.
2. Destroy the character of the character of the candidate.
3. Demonstrate that whether you like the Republicans or not, they at least have the balls to fight for the job.
Number 3 is where we lose. You can already hear it from many who were leaning towards Obama. Obama cited Chicago rules from the movie, Untouchables. Well,. he sure as hell better get to it.
However, I think that a large percentage of this same group is aware of, and feel some degree of negativity towards the team that brought us swift boating and other such shenanigans. Rather than personal attacks against McCain, I'd love to see a series of commercials introducing the McCain handlers....their lobying ties, their history of negative campaigns, etc.
It's been obvious in the past month that McCain the Maverick has been sidelined by these handlers. Who are you really voting for? McCain, or his handlers (who even state that McCain does not represent the "official" campaign platform at times?)
Obama's making a big mistake by going along with these guys on telecom immunity, on drilling, and any other "centrist" crap he's got up his sleeve. I'm starting to smell a fix.
This week's Rasmussen is a reverse of last week's when Obama was up by one.
Having said that, I think Obama needs to go seriously negative on McCain, but with facts to back up negative charges.
I do believe that Obama has the ticket though.
And the one thing I have consistently said that
Obama will bring out the 18-24 year old vote
better than any candidate since I could vote.
The unelectable challenge is an empty premise too.
I think Obama continues to showcase his strengths as this campaign winds down and the next one starts. Respect, intelligence, commitment, levelheadedness, and the ability to seek the advice of smart people.
The fact remains; as people get to know Obama more, they will undoubtedly like him more.
The same can NOT be said for McCain.
Can't wait until Obama gets McGramps to go off during the first debate. To make things fair, we'll even let McSain bring his handler Lieberman on stage to correct him when he makes his gaffes.
A White, Male, Obama supporter & Hungry For Some PRINCIPLES!!
McCain's numbers are not moving. His change (actual voters not "likely voters") is all within the the margin of error. Anyone who has been paying attention at all has decided whether or not they like McCain. Obama's numbers are more volatile. there is a base that ties him with McCain and then there a clump of people...about 5% of the electorate who say they will vote for Obama and then go back to undecided and then back again. Those people might stay home in November but they aren't voting for McCain. Those are the folks Obama has to reach and it's why we can't let McCain make the race about personalities and race because those voters will not be swayed by that.
In addition, I suspect, and most analysts do too, (the ones who study the numbers not the one who just blather on based on the overall poll numbers) that this is an election where the "likely voter" model from the last few elections will not hold up. This happened in 1980. Anyone remember 1980? The race was tied in October. Tied? Didn't Reagan win big? Yes. Part of that was last minute swing to Reagan but a lot of that was the fact that the polls were not guaged to account for a shift in voting patters (who votes as much as how) and the pollsters got caught off guard. Young people and minorities traditionally do not vote in large numbers. If they do turn out that would be a huge swing that the polls do not account for since the pollsters downplay numbers from those groups based on the models from the last few elections.
What I do not understand is why this is conventional wisdom. I agree that most Americans believe this. But WHY? Why is it considered "having balls" to get angry? The exact opposite is true.
Trust me -- in my 50+ years, having worked in the corporate world for 30, I can assure you that showing anger doesn't take "balls." It is actually harder to NOT get angry, or at least to show it. When someone says something that really pisses you off, it is as easy as pie to show anger -- shout them out/respond, etc. What is HARD is holding your temper.
What is wrong with America? Or me?
And where I live, across the board, Republicans, Independents and Democrats, Senator Obama's opposition to offshore exploration and drilling for oil has really hurt him. Now that he's leaning toward the compromise proposal put forth by the bipartisan group of Senators, that might not be such a big issue.
It's absolutely ridiculous that a 72-year-old petty and crankly old man, burdened by the Bush record, is running so close to Obama.
Obama's biggest character flaw is biting us in the butt and may well cause us to lose: EGO. The more the electorate sees of him the more they will smell it. Rove is setting the stage now. If Obama does not trim his ego sails, our future is bleak.
Points: go look at his website and all the "savior Obama" graphic clues. The fake "Presidential Seal" -- what could they have been thinking? His newly outfitted jet and his leather chair that sez "President". The giant Obama logo on the tail. His reckless sound bites about me, me, me, me being the point -- far too easily distorted and they were. Review his history. This guy is abundantly full of himself.
Worse than McCain? Hell no and Obama has 10,000 times redeeming value, so please don't misunderstand my points.
I believe Obama is not hitting back because his EGO won't allow him to move away from the "cool, confident guy" image. I also suspect his EGO has caused some important Demo sharpies to be secretly and subconsciously wanting him to get a comeuppance. They are in the shadows and not pushing like they could. And I'm talking about way more than the Hillary brigade.
Add to that an EGO that so much wants to succeed that he HAS abandoned positions that got him here in the first place -- and that is hurting with dampened enthusiasm among many, at the least. You see, moving his positions just reinforces his EGO concept as the "cool, flexible, change guy who is in control." He surely is not about staunch support of principle.
All of this, combined with the media's vested interest in electing McCain, has put us where we are: incredibly weak in the polls when never before in history have there been so many reasons to elect a Democratic President.
From these poll numbers, take off a couple points that will be stolen by the Repugs. Take off another couple for the hidden racism distorting poll responses and you can see what kind of trouble we are in.
Will the young voter turnout make the difference? I'm no pollster - could it possibly ramp up 5 points above current polls? I dunno.
The key is most likely the independents. IF Obama's EGO keeps him from showing what an unmitigated fraudulent disaster McCain is, we've lost them. IF Obama doesn't start showing less EGO and more man of the people, we've lost them.
Having a long career in the media business, I promise you when your talent falls in love with his/her own publicity, there are big troubles ahead.
Is it possible to feed Senator Obama some humble pie now -- ahead of a big serving in November. I pray so.
If it comes at all close, their "system" will steal it, as they have the last three.
I don't think being alarmed about McCain's trend line is harmful to the party at all. These people are masterful at distortion and playing on fear. Fear is a far stronger motivator than "fan".
How do you differentiate Obama's so-called eliteness from that of McCain, Hillary, or any of the so-called power elite in Washington. Is the perception a real thing, or a racial thing? By racial, I mean the the possibility that it's okay for a white guy or woman to be elite; but not the black guy.
You've been in the business for years, and I'd appreciate if you could throw some light on the matter.
You are right to suggest that race plays into it a bit, too. I don't think so much that race is causing folks to smell EGO where it is not there with Obama, but (particularly with older white men), it is naturally harder to swallow in a young black man. This is why Rove is implanting the "uppity" mime with every beat -- and its working. Young people raised with hip hop, rap, etc., have plenty of models of black "leaders" being full of themselves. Not true with elders.
With his stunning "out of nowhere" nomination success, who in the Obama shop is going to tell him he better notch the EGO down? Is it already too late? The choice to move the acceptance speech into the stadium to provide him a larger adoring audience just shows you his shop's thinking.
The best news is that McCain is basically a lying jerk riding on being a prisoner in that other stupid war over 40 years ago. But notice the built in appeals to the elders and men: strength, bravery, nationalism, bravado, aged wisdom, white. The best news is going to do us NO good if Obama and his shop are so wrapped up in their "self image" that they never capitalize on it.
As Democrats we have a pretty rotten record of fighting back. Look at our cowardly Congress.
Yah, we have problems. All of us need to raise hell as much as possible to the Obama campaign.
The Phil Gramm "whiners" comments was a gift Obama didn't open. And if the energy ad represents the gun he said he'd bring to the knife fight, well he didn't pull the trigger.
If Jay Leno goes out on the street and asks why Britney Spears, Paris HIlton, and Moses have in common with Obama, most people will answer "They were in a John McCain ad,:
If he asks about Obama's energy policy, he'll get a blank stare.
The campaign is allowing McCain to control the dialog. Too often they're playing defense. They have to attack. They have to be over the top with it to get any of that buzz. He has to do it now before the impression sprouts. It's already starting to take root.
It is unfortunate, but that is what people respond to. It isn't looking like the high road is going to lead to the White House.
I don't want to be drying my tears in November and say "It got away form us that lack week of July."
You say we have the blogs but I'm wonder what is the point. For the most part, we're talking to each other. What good does that do. The blogs are a great source of informnation but wse have to go other sites where we can rebut their narrative.
BS
Their Rovian tricks just aren't going to work anymore.
I don't believe it. They are doing the same thing to Obama that they did to Kerry. If McCain wins it will be another fixed election.