I have not owned a landline in nearly 12 years now. Since the 2000 election, I have been wondering how the hell polls can be accurate anymore. So I was reading about how they factor cellphone only people. The article I read was so full of errors and contradictory facts, I began to think and ask friends of mine. With the exception of my 87 year old mother, I do not know ANYONE who owns a landline anymore. No one. Why would you? Long distance is essentially free now, at least with my good plan with Sprint. A friend of ours got rid of her landline last year because the only calls on it were from telemarketers and pollsters.
Can someone please clarify how ANY polls are even close to accurate? And with Obama, I would imagine a whole lotta his supporters do not have landlines either. McSame's? Probably don't know how to use a cell phone.
Your_Uncle_Bastard
· 1 year ago
Amen sista friend! Haven't had a land line myself in 5 years, and would have dumped it before if broadband and/or satellite had been available in my media market.
One of the biggest blessings of having cell phones only is NO junk calls. I've often wondered how this skews whatever poll is being touted as the flavor of the minute, and your post only proves my point that there HAS to be some net effect, and it would appear that no one's talking about how it's taken into account...
osage
· 1 year ago
If the methodology is unreliable to the point that we should not "read too much into it", what's the point of publishing this type of polling results in the first place?
cmpnwtr
· 1 year ago
The likely voter screens by polling organizations are trash, notoriously inaccurate. I'm mostly interested in registered voter polls, if at all.
slappymagoo
· 1 year ago
Geez, why don't they just poll likely Republican voters over the age of 45? Then they can finally show McCain giving Obama the beat down the MSM seems to think he so richly deserves
Rob Mule
· 1 year ago
Wow!!! McCain's got a lead among unregistered alienated half-wits that's within the teeney tiny error percentage posted in a teensey corner of the toob!!!
ZennButtKicker (tlhwraith)
· 1 year ago
I think the end of this piece is the best piece of advice, stop watching the polls at least until October. Right now, the polls are nothing more than the political equivalent of a "teaser ad" that the MSM is using to get eyeballs on the boobtubes and reading papers. The MSM is conditioning us to believe it really is possible to gauge who will win in November by polling peoples opinion every single day, that doesn't make any sense once you realize that often times elections are won or lost based off of a single event (for instance Kerrys swiftboating probably did more to sink his campaign than any long term trend the polls showed).
So, all you poll addicts, put down the pipe and take a step back.
Õ¿Õ
· 1 year ago
I think people, for the most part, don't begin looking at a candidate until August. I wish I could say "examine the candidates positions" but that's not what most Americans do. They'll be trying to "get a feel for that candidate" from now until election. Like, "which would you rather have a beer with." Oh well. Maybe this year they've been paying closer attention. It's funny how the American public is treated like a big blob or something but that's how they act.
ZennButtKicker (tlhwraith)
· 1 year ago
No one needs to be paying that close attention to what is happening. Bush messed up so badly that the stench is following McCain around like an infection. McCain really needs to do some pro-McCain campaigning instead of simply anti-Obama.
Õ¿Õ
· 1 year ago
Yeah, but pro-McCain campaigning is pro bush campaigning.
Your_Uncle_Bastard
· 1 year ago
OMFG not that insipid "have a beer with" meme again!!! Have we learned NOTHING from our long national nightmare?
It literally pains me that so many Americans are, as diva Kathy Griffin would say, "proud of their aggressive ignorance."
I wholeheartedly support pre-conception IQ testing as a prerequisite to applying for a breeding license! Wait, you mean you don't have to have a license to be a parent? But you do to drive a car, catch a fish, own a dog, etc. etc.? WTF??? /snark
Õ¿Õ
· 1 year ago
Is it too late to use paper ballots?
Indigo
· 1 year ago
Yes.
Indigo
· 1 year ago
The answer, my friend, is in who foots the bill.
unrepentant_expat
· 1 year ago
In a country where Diebold counts the votes, exit polls aren't that accurate either.
Your_Uncle_Bastard
· 1 year ago
Welcome back Rob!!! I remember you as "Rob in Baltimore" and thoroughly enjoyed your analysis waaaay back in 2004. Your insights are sorely needed for this election cycle. :-)
farmerbill
· 1 year ago
the biggest problem with the USA Today/Gallup poll that showed mcCain ahead was buried in the ninth paragraph of USAT's "dead tree" edition -- the sample for that poll had equal numbers of self-identified dems and republicans. the last USAT/Gallup poll had a sample that had 11% more dems than republicans, which would seem to completely account for the deviation from all the other recent polls.
an "expert" commentator told huffington post that gallup's publishing poll results that relied on that sample was tantamount to "pollster malpractice."
jr
· 1 year ago
"our polls have something for everyone"-Gallup
jiminportlandoregon
· 1 year ago
OK, maybe I'm too paranoid, but what about this scenario? The polling is deliberately schizophrenic to make it look like McCan't is a lot closer than he is so that when they rig the machines in certain states on election day, it will not appear to be too outlandish when they declare him the winner. Am I nuts, or is this a likely scenario? I mean, I put NOTHING past these slime balls.
LeesiD
· 1 year ago
Not only are the folks who are polled "outliars" meaning they don't tell the truth when asked, but so are the pollsters themselves; meaning that when they call a person on their set of 1000 people or whatever and let's say one of the 1000 don't answer the phone, well these pollsters look and see what zip code this perosn lives at, what is the average income, age, ect., and decide for themselves how this person may answer the questions, based on their averages model....that is not only inaccurate, it's dishonest. I never pay all that much attention to Gallup or any polls. The only one I do pay attention to is the poll I go to on Election Day!!
All Comments
Can someone please clarify how ANY polls are even close to accurate? And with Obama, I would imagine a whole lotta his supporters do not have landlines either. McSame's? Probably don't know how to use a cell phone.
One of the biggest blessings of having cell phones only is NO junk calls. I've often wondered how this skews whatever poll is being touted as the flavor of the minute, and your post only proves my point that there HAS to be some net effect, and it would appear that no one's talking about how it's taken into account...
McCain's got a lead among unregistered alienated half-wits that's within the teeney tiny error percentage posted in a teensey corner of the toob!!!
So, all you poll addicts, put down the pipe and take a step back.
It literally pains me that so many Americans are, as diva Kathy Griffin would say, "proud of their aggressive ignorance."
I wholeheartedly support pre-conception IQ testing as a prerequisite to applying for a breeding license! Wait, you mean you don't have to have a license to be a parent? But you do to drive a car, catch a fish, own a dog, etc. etc.? WTF??? /snark
an "expert" commentator told huffington post that gallup's publishing poll results that relied on that sample was tantamount to "pollster malpractice."