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i can't help but believe Obama is on top of this information as well.
Rob, what about "do not call" numbers...can pollsters get around that?
i've never been polled as a registered voter in my life.
You know, I have quite a wide circle of friends and acquaintances and they know quite a few people each and I can honestly say I don't know a single person who has ever gotten a call from a pollster. I'd love for one to call me, but I'm not sure how they find people...
But, make no mistake about it, it's Obamas fault if MCain wins. He is the wimp who could not deliver on any of his big speeches. Having the German crOwd scream hail Obama doth not win the election in these here US
There's no other choice.
But, in general, I began to lose
interest when the Dem leadership
refused to bring a vote on Impeaching
Bush. Who's side are they on???
And Obama's capitulation on FISA
did not inspire me. The screwball
media is sickening, too.
The Dems have a majority, thanks to us.
But, they let the US skirt the law. They can
bring impeachment proceedings, thanks to
us....and the Constitution...
The violations of law and ethics by this Administration
are so constant and egregious that I've finally become
like that famous Russian voice of dissent, Solzhenitsyn.
Not to be confused with apathy, but you reach a point
where it's so corrupt that you just sit back and watch.
I wish I had his exact words to reproduce here because
it represents my state of mind precisely.
. . .
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/209193.php
All he has is talk and speeches.
And if McCain win the election Obama has no one but himself to blame. He owns the loss, no one else.
He did not deliver what he set out to promise.
As a post script, I live much of my life in Connecticut and New York City. I never saw there the degree of racial discomfort that is evident here in Michigan.
Obama has changed his position on FISA and drilling. He's aligned himself with McCain (whom has never changed his stance on Presidential authority).
Instead of Obama moving to the right to get more votes, he should have been looking to the left where there is a humongous pool of people that have seen no reason to even register to vote over the last 35 years. Those are the people that want immediate, radical change and they are still left out.
Obama could mention the Big Oil companies that already drill for oil here and then ship it around the world so thy can charge US a Hell of a lot more for it.
Just takes common sense....unless he's been paid to take a dive.
I am also bewildered about how he is not ahead by 75% considering how the repubs have fucked everything up.
There is a question further down where someone asks if Americans are stupid. I have been a teacher for 32 years and must say yes, they are stupid!
for him to be up more than 5% would mean republicans crossing over a lot...it's way too early for that. No polling firm is going to weight to give an approximation of the vast democratic voter turnout that will happen because the poll would seem biased. anything showing him up more than 5-8% with more than 4 weeks to go should not be believed, simply because it's not realistic.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10562904
pretty much tell the whole story? Look how many people have voted!!!!
Yeah, Barack, more to the right....just a little further.
in the polls and that was before Bush's second term of
disaster. During Kerry's effort, some still gave Bush credit...
Now there has been a second term of disaster with no let up.
Clearly, the only beneficiary of the Bush White House has been Halliburton and friends. Clearly, they lied us into the illegal
occupation of a sovereign nation that posed no imminent threat.
They even fire the best US Attys., stack courts, and line the DOJ
to rig the elections in their favor!
It's all pretty obvious now.
To hear Bush scold Russia was the height of hypocrisy.
I myself was galled. I nearly puked. But, I diverge!....
From what I heard on this blog, Obama had it all over
Kerry as a candidate?! Can anyone explain this to me?
Does this mean that you will now throw Obama under the
bus with the same fervor as you seemed to throw
Kerry under the bus?
I want someone who will just do the right thing and
lead. To hell with the polls and sucking up with a
big smile. To hell with the media. It's all so corrupt
anyway. To hell with whether you seem cool today or
tomorrow. Just lead with some integrity, already!
Ultimately, I care so much that I no longer care!
It's pretty bad when you look to Solzhenitzyn
for a philosophy to cope...
(see my post downthread)
i. e. How's them Olympics?!
I noticed that little gold medal gymnast,
Shawn Johnson, wore very prominent
earrings in her international TV interview.
They had a conspicuous PEACE symbol.
She knows that all eyes are on her
and she is the face of the USA--
Nice statement! More kudos to her!!
Tough situation.
i will start worrying when Obama is behind in September.
No matter what metrics any of the firms put in place, the polls are skewed. Not saying they shouldn't have people thinking what needs to happen in the next 76 days or so, but your general "the polls are g_d" tone here, misses their major flaw these days.
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index...
on the question of experience? please. if george w. bush can be president the question of experience is out the window.
Caroline Kennedy would be an awesome choice.
The most troubling number is the "28% said nothing" when asked what they "liked most" about Obama. It wholly supports the theories of those who've been saying that a lot of people don't feel they know Obama, and by implication, that they have little reason to trust him. Obama is doing nothing to reassure voters of not only who, but what he is. In truth, I don't know. He seems not to have any principles that stand, he's accomplished nothing that stands out, and over the past two months he's made his main cause to be one of of crushing the faith of those who, at one point, thought they knew him.
Why in the hell did our candidate take a vacation? get elected, then take a vacation.
i wasn't saying...don't worry about the polls. just that the post ignored or glossed over a very real shortcoming with modern phone polls.
Barack, quit calling mccain a hero.
Exactly! Kerry campaigned as the more Bush than Bush and voters decided that they'd rather vote for the real Dubya.
America is sick to death of the Clintons and their games. Unless you are under, say, about 28, you know this. Even TODAY, Bill Clinton is still pouting like a spoiled child. Enough Clintons!
Yes, yes, I KNOW they are hoping Obama loses so Hillary can run in 2012. How delusional can you get? IF Obama "loses" (and if he does, it will be by cheating GOPers), and the Dems pick Hillary to run in 2012, they are way dumber than even *I* thought they would be.
Please go negative. Take off the gloves. Let the American people see that McSame is nothing but a third Bush term.
I often wonder why Anglos in America cannot ascribe to the Conventional Wisdom that we, in the community of "racial and ethnics" do for our self-interest. Thus, are Anglos in pursuit of their self-interest or are they pursuing another form of political schizophrenia.
Take, for example, African Americans are supporting Obama at the high level of 90%. Native Americans are supporting Obama at the also high level of 90%. And Chicanos here in the Sonoran Desert are supporting Obama at an astounding 79%, and this is based on the latest 'poll' in which the local media news outlets have refuse to either publish or discuss. And for those of us who are politically astute as Democrats, not only do we have to contest both the Republicans and the Federal Reserve System in this election cycle, but the Anglos in our America had better get off their duff and "join the team!" instead of going schizo again as they did in Pursuit of Bush's War of Choice.
Jaango
***********************
If this is true, I give up. I have voted in every presidential election since I was 19 -- 1972. I have seen good candidates and bad ones. And I can tell you, the past 15 years have been, by far, the worst I have seen it in this country.
If THIS election is close, America is doomed. I don't think Obama is perfect, but the things I dislike about him (like FISA and pandering to religion) -- seem to not matter to most Americans.
Yes, this year is different in that Bush has been SO bad that many Americans who would normally vote GOP are voting Dem. (Why they are too cowardly to just say they are Democrats now, rather than the wimpy "Independent" is beyond me.)
There is only one reason why it is close -- IF it is -- and I guess I trust you -- is RACISM.
I can see no other reason.
2. BO is still ahead electorally: http://pollster.com/
3. BO needs to fight back more, imo because it's the right thing to do, and it may be critical
By turning to the right, he doesn't risk losing progressive votes, but he loses progressives working for him and donating. Is that important?
John, I think you are having an effect on Obama's campaign. I hope it is in time. I am depressed about what I read in the comments of Americablog, is it possible that the people who own the Democratic party are tanking on purpose? Is there really no choice anymore for America.
at the top what it is he does for a living. Does he
make money from studying these polls? And would he
not have a job if Obama was forty points ahead?
That's what I'm saying.
--- Disqus <>
When reality is doom and gloom, you better do something to change reality, not live a lie.
the polling. They get paid, the pundits get paid, the
nominees workers get paid, the television people get
paid. If one or the other gets to far ahead they will
not get paid. It's the same with the wall street
analists. If they tell you to stop investing in the
stock market they lose their jobs. And the gloom and
doom statement. Just watch the news everything in it
is gloom and doom. It's the only thing that gets
people's attention these days. The saying "If it
bleeds it leads." Most people are sick and tired off
all of this. That's why Obama beat Hillary. Yet now
that the polls say he is only slightly ahead everyone
is panicking. You want him to change politics. But
you want him to do by being the same as what you want
changed. As I said I beleive most of this crap is
total lies.
--- Disqus <>
As for Obama beating Hillary, we've left the Democratic primary and since Democrats don't make up 51% of the electorate, it matters what people who are not Democrats (i.e. Independents) think.
polls said was winning before Iowa. Hillary or Obama.
I know we are past the primaries. But I remember the
polls all saying Hillary had it completly tied up.
That Obama didn't have a chance. This wasn't a
pundits opinion, this was the polls. The same polls
that you are worried about now. They were wrong then.
The may be wrong now. Most of the time they are
wrong. It doesn't matter if they say they are non
profit or not. The people working for them that is
how they make their living. I am sure they don't
volunteer all their time. I'm sure they also have
other jobs. But they have this opportunity every four
years to make a lot of money getting on CNN and Fox
and all the other things. If there isn't any tension.
Or possibility of losing then no one will care or
watch. Just think how many people wouldn't go to
Americablog if everyone knew Obama was a shoe in. You
can believe all you want in non-profits, but just
check into the upper managements of most of them. How
can you be considered a non-profit if the head of the
organization is making a half-million dollars a year,
Like Libby Dole and the red cross.
--- Disqus <>
But perhaps a tighter pithier message from Obama will help. Surely, Americans cannot answer yes to the question"Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?". Surely Americans do not want to say yes to "Do you want more wars?".
The candidate cannot blame the current condition of the race on the supporters. Sorry, doesn't work. The candidate and the campaign bear the responsibility. They set the tone and the direction.
So don't blame us!
the good news is that if mccain wins, the U.S.A. would finally be overthrown as the superpower, it about time anyway. we cannot let dumb people control the world.
it went from egypt to italy to britain to U.S.A. it is china or russia or iran's turn to lead.
i put my money on china.
I am not challenging your credibility one iota. I agree wholeheartedly with what Robert Arena has written. However, he has not linked polling to the reality for voting behavior when it comes this large segment in America's demographics.
For these past few years, I have been the writer for the Cactus Juice Commentaries for the Chicano Veterans Organization. To wit, we, collectively, have a long history of familiarity with McCain since he arrived into the Sonoran Desert in search of an Elective Office while he has been genuflecting at the Altar of the Military Industrial Complex when he was the lobbyist for the Pentagon in the prior six years to his retirement from the Navy.
Today, I posted an item titled, "Speculation can be fun" in which I posit that Republican women favor Peace and the self-aggrieved Republican men favor War in order to perpetuate their Fear and thusly, waylay any well-intentioned Progress. Take a gander, and you will see that your credibility has long been reinforced by those of us who have laced up the combat boots and strapped on the body armor. Perhaps, you consider us as part and parcel of foundational support for the slow-walking "Maturation for Moderation" Club?
Jaango
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
fuck
I do have to say this: There are about 72 million registered democrats, and 50 million republicans. If the Democrats lose this one, in this climate, there is no hope this party. If Democrats actually voted in lock step like the repugs, we would never even be having this discussion. Should the Dems lose the white house this year, it is my hope that some new progressive movement party will happen, and you can bet I will join that movement. Lower, responsible tax system, strong defense, no nation building, liberal social values, no corporate lobbysts, responsible regulation. Sign me up. no party does this angle as far as I am concerened, it's time.
Also, the Hillary factor: She hung on too long when she knew she could not mathamatically win it, and this has hurt us a bit.
But if there are in reality MORE Democrats that are voting, when the polls are 50/50, this may not be as dire as it seems.
Of course, if it seems close, there WILL be an attempt to steal it. That may be a danger no matter what the polls say, though.
I was in college in 1992 and felt the energy of the election time that fall. Students (Dems) were galvanized, made sure that everyone knew when the deadline to register to vote, and organized shuttle service to the polls and back. We talked about it in the dorms and at dining halls and got others who weren't paying attention to do so. Election day was a success for us then and I'm hoping that same kind of energy will repeat itself this year. I now work at a university and I can't wait for the students to come back.
Remember the massive Bush mandate and President Hillary?
I've no doubt that certain massively delusional Bush supporters will select sinful, ambitious Johnny even if he gives a drooling Dubya-esque debate performance.
But, given a riveting and historic Obama acceptance speech and debates untainted by cone-cheating I'm anticipating numbers even more statistically significant.
I feel pretty positive about O and I believe he can pull it out. Can't take another 4 years of the GOP. It's s shame that people do vote against their own interest.
Now people here in California are very pissed off at Arnold S. But hey, they voted him back into office. Now they regret it, but it's too late.
it's not the right time to be sober, now the idiots have taken over
spreading like a social cancer, is there an answer?
Mensa membership conceding
tell me why and how are all the stupid people breeding
Watson, it's really elementary...
the industrial revolution
has flipped the bitch on evolution
the benevolent and wise are being thwarted, ostracized, what a bummer
the world keeps getting dumber
insensitivity is standard and faith is being fancied over reason
Darwin's rollin over in his coffin, the fittest are surviving much less often
now everything seems to be reversing, and it's worsening!
someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool
now angry mob mentality's no longer the exception, it's the rule
and im startin to feel a lot like charlton heston
stranded on a primate planet
apes and orangutans that ran it to the ground, with generals and the armies that obeyed them
followers following fables
philosophies that enable them to rule without regard
there's no point for democracy when ignorance is celebrated
political scientists get the same one vote as some Arkansas inbred
'majority rule', don't work in mental institutions
sometimes the smallest softest voice carries the grand biggest solutions
what are we left with?
a nation of god-fearing pregnant nationalists
who feel it's their duty to populate the homeland
pass on traditions
how to get ahead religions
And prosperity via simpleton culture
the idiots are taking over
Anyway, I disagreed with their logic b/c they were basically giving away their rights, but I understood their frustration and sentiment.
I'm counting on a whole block of never polled (not likely voters), never registered, never voted african americans to surge this puppy into oblivian.
But the smartest thing Obama could do....
Is pick Hillary Clinton for VP!
I can't tell you how many, Men and Women...who are just waiting to see who the VP is. People who are just holding their breath and hoping it will be Clinton.
It would be spectacularly exciting if he picks HRC...and it would absolutely change the whole complexion of this race.
Far more exciting...Than if Obama goes with some other old boring white guy.
And that's what Obama's campaign needs...a shot of excitement!
I'm beginning to think the policies have become Republican Light and that I have the wrong candidate.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/standingup
Even Pat Buchanan said the Obama camp needs to wrap Bush around McCains neck and throw him in the river. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with Pat Buchanan.
I recently found out that Obama will only come to a campaign fund-raiser if he is guaranteed $750,000. So much for "change" and being more connected to the regular man and woman.
I know it's been a long season, but hang in there! If I have to watch McCains fake yellow smile and whiney voice, for four years, I will go completely insane. Oh, and not to mention world war three, which Condi is already hammering out the details for us on. Thanks Condi-
Heres why: Obama has been on the defense for an entire month. He's allowed McCain to define him--by McCain's standards. Every time Obama says that McCain is a war hero, a man of honor etc. etc., it makes that case that what McCain says about "him" must be correct.
I'm totally disappointed that Obama has allowed McCain to close the gap and pull ahead. Instead of continually linking McCain to the failed politics of the last 8 years; blasting him daily on his connections to lobbyists and McCain's inability to answer a straight answer about where he stands on the issues; or continually reminding the country that McCain wants to stay in Iraq for another century; or McCain's weak stand on alternative energies, and his views on a woman's right to choose; or yes.....his age; Obama chooses to do nothing!
John is a big supporter of Obama. He was, and I believe still is a major Hillary-hater. I think this was due, in part to her refusal to mention the word "gay" in stump speeches.
So, now that "gay" has been removed from the platfrom under Obama leadership, where does that leave us? Where does that leave Hillary?
....."This is Condi's phone. Aparently Condi was supposed to get an important message from the white house NOT to agree to a missle shield in Poland against Russia for fear of planting the seads of world war three....But Condi does not have AT&T, so us in the white House cannot spy on her. So she never got the message....."
Thanks Condi...... (pause)....then a mushroom cloud......and fade to black.
I do not trust polls, I believe the Media rigs them. Also, who are all these people taking these polls? Don't give up now, we have to have to keep the faith. I know we can win this one. OBAMA 2008
share the concern.
still have no helpful comment to add.
all i know is that Our Great Nation's future hangs in the balance.
we must have the courage to stand up for the other America, the Great America that so many of us believe in and long to see.
The big freakout
by kos
Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:07:40 AM PDT
So over at the post announcing the launch of my book, I saw a couple of people freaking out -- freaking out!!!! -- that McCain has the lead in some national polls.
So I sauntered over to Pollster.com to see what all the hoopla was about, and clicked through to their national polls page. Then I rolled my eyes when I saw that the poll causing such aneurysms was ....
A Zogby poll.
Some people are frackin' hopeless. Really. At the same time, a new Q-poll has Obama up five, Gallup has him up three (after being tied a couple of days ago), Ras has him up two, as does Bloomberg/Times.
Look, the race is tightening at the national level, but it's much less tight when you look at the state-by-state numbers that, you know, actually decide the presidency. So while it's not exactly a cakewalk, freaking out over single polls from shitty, discredited pollsters like Zogby is pretty pathetic.
We've got the veep announcements and the conventions to get through, and then the race will start in earnest. Be zen. Freaking out over crappy pollsters is just lame. Keep your eye on the composite -- Obama still leads that by 1.4 percent -- and maintain perspective -- McCain has never crossed the 45 percent threshold while Obama bobs between 45 and 50.
I'll be officially worried when McCain shows the ability to break that barrier of support. If he suddenly starts hovering in the upper 40s, then we might have trouble. But ultimately, this is a state-by-state battle. And in the electoral college fight, Obama still has a solid lead -- without even taking into account the ground machine Obama is building (pollsters aren't).
I think we all just need to take a deep breath and then get back to doing the work we do so well.
Agreed 110%
That said, Robert lost me in his post when he said:
"At this point in 2004, Kerry led Bush 47-45, in 1992 Clinton led Bush 57-37."
If Robert is the expert you that has been claimed, than he knows such a comparison is utterly meaningless.
At this point in 1992 -- Clinton had both unveiled his VP and had his convention bounce.
At this point in 2004, Kerry had not yet been exposed to the swift boat campaigns.
The bottom line is that, while Obama isn't doing as well as he could, he's hardly doing badly.
And being someone who has worked with Axelrod & Co closely on state-level campaigns past, I know firsthand the value they place on holding their fire until voter attention is being paid, and then putting the pressure on -- consistently and relentlessly -- until the very end. My sense is they are just now gearing up.
Keep in mind that McCain has been conducting his "swift boat" phase for weeks now, and hasn't been able to crack a credible lead. He's undisputedly dominated message for an entire month, and yet the poll movement, while noticible, has hardly been outside the magin of error.
Make no mistake, I'd like to see a more aggressive Obama -- and if we don't there will be trouble.
But trouble ain't here quite yet. And the fact that McCain has had his accelerator to the floor for a full month, and the road almost entirely to himself, and still hasn't been able to crack 45% has to scare the crap out of the GOP.
My take is that, as a general rule, presidential elections are ALWAYS about a decision between change vs. risk. When voters want change, change wins -- unless they are too fearful of the risk.
1976, 1980, & 1992 were years that change won
1984, 88, 96, & 2004 were years where the electorate was either happy with the direction of the country, or at least not unhappy enough to risk change.
2000 -- a combination of good direction for the country, combined with massive Clinton fatigue, produced an effective tie.
McCain's campaign knows this. They are only playing lip service to a "change", it's clear their campaign is entirely about making the risk of Obama too high
They've certainly had some impact, but I really think its been fairly small compared to the desire for change that exists. My money is still on change carrying the day.
Candidates are always capable of fucking up their own campaigns, so nothing is certain. That said, my money is still on ch
During the Primaries, I got really behind Obama. I went with my wife to Denver Pride, and spent a whole day talking to people about Obama and trying to register new voters. Denver was abuzz with excitement and I was looking forward to the fray come August. Hell, I thought, I might say fuck it and join the big convention buzz, even though I hate crowds.
Now, I'm just going to stay up in our new Apartment, work on getting our PCs up and running, and avoid going downtown if at all possible.
Why? Because the man I thought I was stumping for did not turn out to be the man he actually is. Instead, he turned out to be a darker combination of Clinton and Kerry, constantly praising McCain's service while letting McCain call him all kinds of nasty names, all while triangulating to the center.
He lost my enthusiasm when he voted for Telecom Immunity and rewriting FISA.
Now, I will vote for him only if Colorado looks close. If it's going hard to him or McCain, I will either abstain or vote for a third party candidate. My view of him has steadily weakened from 'Vote for him' to 'vote against McCain' to 'Can't we get a real principled progressive candidate here?!'
How can he fix it? Here's an idea of a speech he might deliver the next time McCain attacks his patriotism, delivered on National TV. Maybe he can use it at the convention.
"Previous Democratic candidates have been called out for daring to question the Republican candidate's qualifications. Accusations of denigrating the Republicans service history or unfair attacks against, say, the candidates race or age have flown. To borrow the words of the man whose policies McCain desires to continue, I say 'bring it on'. There is no question that McCain did serve his country honorably. However, this election is not about his ability to follow orders, but how to give them. Today, six years into his predecessor's war of choice, funded through increased borrowing from China instead of increased taxes on those who can afford to pay them, especially those who profit from the war, the American Dollar is worth less than half what it was worth in 2002. Today, almost eight years into his predecessors terms in office, you, the American people, pay over 3 times as much for heating and lighting, almost 3 times as much for car fuel, and over twice as much for food as you did before he took office. Your wages have stagnated, and millions of you have lost your jobs and were forced to take jobs that paid significantly less than the jobs you had before. Four thousand of our soldiers and even more hired mercenaries have lost their lives in Iraq, while companies such as Haliburtan and Blackwater have made substantial profits in Iraq. We have lost the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people and as we speak, their elected government is asking that we withdraw from their country.
"One of our own cities lies in disrepair in the wake of the historic Hurricane Season of 2005, and bridges and roads across this great nation are in danger of collapsing as the I35W bridge in Minnesota did last year. Instead of spending dollars to maintain our infrastructure and rebuild New Orleans, we spend more on the occupation in Iraq and giving our richest citizens and corporations not just tax breaks, but subsidies, literally, gifts of our tax dollars in payments. If personal welfare is so bad, then why is the corporate version any better?
McCain wishes to continue these policies. I am not saying he cannot lead. I am saying that we cannot follow where he wishes to lead us. A vote for McCain is a vote for a continuation of the policies that have changed us from a national super power to a country whose influence is waning in the world. While we fritter away our power and influence in Iraq, countries like Russia feel free to bully our allies. While we waste our blood and treasure trying to force our version of democracy in the Middle East, China builds itself up and positions itself as the leader of the 21st Century. Republican policies of tax cuts and subsidies for outsourcing our manufacturing starves both our people and our government. Republican policies of interfering in foreign countries national affairs drains money we do not have to pay for an occupation we should not need. Republican policies of gutting our social support programs leaves our nations workers in peril of even the smallest bumps in life, reducing their job mobility and decreasing their confidence in the future. Republican foreign policy weakens us abroad and Republican domestic policy weakens us at home.
McCain knows that he cannot campaign on the facts. Instead of addressing American's worries about continued international involvements, including more wars in the Middle East, continued inflationary policies that weaken the Dollars value making everything more expensive for the American consumer to purchase, and continued assaults on the fundamental things that make us Americans, our civil liberties guaranteed to us in the Constitution and Bill of Rights, he chooses to throw out trivial insults comparing me to hot bodied singers and dancers. While I find it humorous to be compared to a twenty-something with a cute body and the talent to show it off, that is not what the American people need to hear. Such nonsense cheapens the political discourse and only serves to cloud the issue. And the issue is that McCain is a third term of George W. Bush.
I will responsibly redeploy our troops from Iraq, and immediately renegotiate the contracts to finish rebuilding Iraq. The contracts will go primarily to Iraqi companies, paid for in Iraqi currency, and the benefits reaped by the Iraqi people. Iraqi government will have a large hand in this process, far larger than ours. American companies who wish to participate in rebuilding Iraq will bid reasonable amounts.
I will take immediate steps to return manufacturing to American soil. I will push for legislation closing offshored production tax loopholes. I will also push for legislation to revert our tax structure to the very prosperous Clinton years, increasing the share our richest citizens pay. Likewise, I will reevaluate and restructure government to make it as lean and efficient as possible. People, we have a massive credit card bill to pay, and I intend to take as big a bite out of it as my democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, did. The way to do this is to wean ourselves off of foreign production, bring in tax dollars that President Bush saw fit to not pursue, and rebuild our economy."
That's a fairly long sample of what I'd LIKE to hear from Obama. I'd also love to hear about defending our security AND liberty, if he can manage to find a way to do this after his cave in with FISA.
Short answer? McCain's starting to look good to people because Obama is not doing his frackin' job.
'Two things'. If I caught my wife advocating that my boss should have the right to snoop into my personal affairs, you better bet your whole damn farm that I'd leave her. As for the 'magic wearing off', that's far from what's going on. This would be like my originally gothy, bisexual, adventuresome wife turning into a Christian Prude. Yes, that would definitely put me off her. I didn't marry a Christian Prude, and I sure didn't sign up to support a wishy-washy two-timing fool who thinks if he's nice enough to the Republicans they'll stop being mean to him. He didn't play nice with Hillary, why is he playing nice with McCain?
Compromise? This would have been a compromise: Everything after 9/11/2001 would be reviewed by the judge provided for 'national security interests'. Anything before 9/11 would be open game for investigations, and probably would have led right to Bush and Cheney's doorstep. After all, the goal was to dig through all the warrentless wiretaps. The Republicans got what they wanted on the FISA bill. They got what they wanted on the warrentless wiretaps. They got what they wanted on the Iraq war funds bill. They've walked all over the Democrats, and apart from minimum wage increases, what have the Democrats gotten? Nothing else.
Your entire post is a false analogy, and is indicative of the problems the Democratic Party suffers. Compromise, you say? These are the Republicans we're talking about. Get a clue; they don't compromise. They take what they want. And playing the 'nice democrat' is getting your candidate creamed in the polls.
The only way to win this election is to stand up to the slime machine. The polls to this point show that Obama is doing a bad job of that.
To answer your question, no I do not 'want' Obama in office. Unlike my wife, I've not fallen in love with him. I want the best man in the office possible. And I want that guy to have a shot at getting in the office. Once you learn that fine nuance, instead of trying to simplify things and shape things to fit your agenda, maybe you'll figure out why your candidate is now in a statistical dead heat against a guy he should be beating 50 to 30 or worse.
Wishy-Washy spineless Democrats gain no conservative voters, weaken their liberal base, and...brace yourself for this, LLDEM, lose you the crucial support from the moderate middle that you need. Perhaps you don't get it that we independent voters might want someone who doesn't act like a lightweight Republican. Yes, boy. I'm registered Independent. Always have been. And until your candidate started caving to the center, I damn near went Democrat. Why did I change? Because your candidate changed. Thank him for losing an independent.
I want to like the guy. I ain't voting for McCain. In fact, you assume I will vote for anyone besides Obama. What you don't get is that the first time in a long time, i thought this could be a vote for someone. I will be touching the button for Obama's name in November, not because of you, but in spite of you. However, I won't be voting for him, but much as I did in 2004, against Bush, or in this case, McCain.
You go ahead and blindly support him. You just haven't learned the lesson yet that if you don't punish pols who don't do what they say (on things like caving on offshore drilling or on FISA), then they'll keep disappointing you and saying one thing and doing another.
Obama said he was for change.
I supported him because I believed him.
He then did the one thing that I really want changed in congress -- voting for a horrible compromise.
Now he's trying to triangulate to the center talking about Jesus instead of Health Care, talking about faux Patriotism instead of taking care of our country, both within and without, and talking about incidental things instead of hammering away on John McBush the Third.
Is it any wonder why his poll numbers are slipping.
And you're not helping him. I complained on his blog, supposedly to him, that this course was wrong. All you yes-people just shouted me out. You've got his ear, and you're guiding him straight to the ground.
Is that what you are trying to do? if I was suspicious, I'd say yes.
We don't get to make the rules if we're not in the White House. We don't get to make the rules without a fillabuster-proof senate. And sometimes to get to that point, you have to give on some others. Then you can roll back FISA and outlaw drilling in ANWR. But you have to be in power to do it.
So I'm willing to give a little to get more people into our tent and put the democrats in power. Then we can finish remaking the world in our vision. I still believe that Obama is telling me the truth and I have a pretty good BS detector. So, maybe instead of tearing the man down, give him a little credit. He did away with Hillary pretty well.
Also, check out his new ad linking McCain to Abramoff. It's only the beginning.
Can we wait until AFTER the VP choices and conventions are in and done before we hit the panic button? I realise Obama has been in cruise control lately but McCain is wearing himself out. How long can he keep up the pace before exhaustion kicks in?
It sounds as if Obama just needs to sell himself more to some people but he also needs to tie McCain to Bush. I believe he can and will do both. Let's just wait a week and see shall we?
Also:
For those of you who were/are Clinton supporters who are decrying the fact that some Obama supporters aren't being nice enough to you: If after 8 years of Bush (to be followed perhaps by 4 years at least of McBush) you need someone to be "nice" to you in order to vote your best interests, then you aren't exactly reliable as voters to begin with. Sorry your gal lost. Blame her, not us because it was hers to win and she didn't.
Last:
The 1992 stats are a little deceptive. Perot dropped out of the race post Dem convention but got back in later. I believe Bill only got 42% of the overall vote and that was enough to win the 3 man race.
Are you arguing that we should be panicking right now because the race is close? Of course it's close! Whenever anyone says Obama should be leading by more it is because that person is imagining a perfect world where everyone knows and understands the issues. Of course that person knows we don't live in such a world. The reality is that the majority don't know the issues or where the candidates stand or what issues will even effect them the most.
Take a look at this link and compare polling trends from the last two election with this one. You will see Obama is doing better than either Gore or Kerry to date and this is before the convention this time.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_trends_in...
So yes, it is too early to panic. This is the kind of loser mentality which turns into self fulfilling prophecies for Democrats. It's all this hand wringing that makes us look like wimps. Obama is doing just fine. We need to quit our complaining and work on McCain. If we show we are tough for a change, we'll win this thing.
As I pointed out in my link, Obama is doing better than his two predecessors. A lot better but there is something else that needs pointing out. During the primaries, the unknown Obama went up against a known quantity and won, it was close but he won. Now he is doing the same thing again. McCain is the known quantity (or at least people think they know him) and again Obama is doing well. Take your own argument about how most people vote, given that what you say is true (and it is) then it is McCain who should be ahead in this race. After all the "common" perception of McCain is that of an "experienced, war hero, maverick". Just the kind of image that should see him to big leads despite the R and the fact that the R is a damaged brand name. Many refuse to see McCain as another Bush right now. It needs to be pointed out that he is and once the election gets into full swing, I believe more people will see that. An unknown doesn't beat a known overnight. No matter how shitty the known is. Again, under the circumstances, Obama is doing just fine. As for the "what if Hillary won" that some people are trying, well just think back to your primary experiences here and try to realise that there was more anti-Hillary than pro-Obama. That's because there are/were more Dems against Hillary than are against Obama. The argument that all her baggage is "old news" doesn't hold water either. It just makes it easier to bash her with it. What's old is new again as the old saying goes and the repugs would have had a much easier time firing up their base against someone they already hated than to fire up their base against someone they don't know.
On some of your points. Yes it is fooloish to push away any support. The more the merrier but I would hope it doesn't come down to whether or not the winning side was nice enough to the losing side.
Anyway, any more replies and they will get too thin! I do hope you stick around and stick by your guns no matter what I or anyone else says.
Peace!
"OH NO! we can't make PLATFORM DEMANDS FROM OBAMA! he might LOSE! oh no... kiss those human & privacy rights BYE-BYE... asking for our RIGHTS might be TOO MUCH... we should be GRATEFUL if Obama actually wins!!"
are you kidding me? seriously?
if this is the depth of the American political debate... then we're all screwed. Because the US has been demanding the ENTIRE WORLD hand over BIOMETRIC & DNA catalogues... cough up privacy rights, embed RFID chips...
all to make *AMERICANS* feels safer as they continue to bomb the crap out of the Rest of the World & rollout WHINSEC to backup corporate workers' & human rights offshore in OUR nations.
...& the best Americans can do is whinge that asking for their RIGHTS from a candidate might be TOO MUCH TO ASK?
I pity us for what we've become... & for what the World was willing to endure to prevent themselves from being criticized by AMERICANS for not being brave enough to give up OUR rights.
I recommend Americans watch the online documentary "Taking Liberties" & notice what their demands are taking from the REST of the World & THEMSELVES while they debate whether or not THEY SHOULD STRUGGLE just a little bit while they're hogtied for corporatization & commodification.
If you don't think he can win, then just get the hell out of his way. Don't even mention his name. Start preparing for 2012. Your bitchin' and moanin' is feeding the media and helping McCain.
Unless your hidden agenda is to undermine Senator Obama, shut the hell up!
When Republicans thought they had no chance in hell of winning this election, they were still dedicated collectively to tearing Senator Obama down. They may be dispicable, but at least they are loyal! Some of you have the audacity to call Senator Obama weak. You're the MF's that are weak! We haven't even started the Fall campaign season, and you're already predicting defeat. No wonder most Americans think Democrats are weak on defense...who the hell would go into battle with a bunch of cowards that raise the white flag before a shot is fired!
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/20/121...
This is why he is losing. If you are so damn intelligent, Barack, stop rambling and spit out your damn thoughts!! The one thing people do not want is a President who is indecisive, and Sen. Obama showcased his unease and indecisiveness the other night. He better start spitting out answers a lot faster and seem in command of the material, or people will write him off as a joke, which some already are.
BAC
This poll and EVERY OTHER poll released this week was conducted while Senator Obama was on vacation; Senator McCain had the media to himself to assault Senator Obama's character relentlessly; and Senator McCain got a gift from Russia and yet Senator Clinton, who has been close to sainted by the media, her supporters and even Republicans since conceding, only peformas 3 percentage points better and more importantly doesn't crack the elusive 50% mark either, which means she is underperforming the generic poll as well.
Just sayin'.